Monitoring the situation next door
Editorial
Stabroek News
January 29, 2003
It is not proposed in this editorial to add to the several analyses of the conflict-situation in Venezuela which have frequently appeared in this and other sections of the press. In terms of analysis, the matter was dealt with fully in our editorial of January 17, 2003. What follows is limited to a note on recent developments for finding a solution to the conflict and their implications for Guyana and, in particular, to the setting up of a group of six countries, calling themselves the Friends of Venezuela. The group consists of the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Spain and Portugal. The stated intention of the group is to support the mediation efforts undertaken by OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria. As any process which determines the stability of a government in Venezuela must be of vital and active concern to Guyana's foreign policy and diplomacy, the most careful attention should be given to the work of the Group of Six and the more recent peace proposals of President Jimmy Carter.
The indications are that President Chavez while welcoming the initiative, which came from Brazil, to establish the group is clearly uneasy about its composition. He has sought the assistance of the UN Secretary General in support of his suggestion to expand the Group to include Russia, France, China and other states. More recently Chavez has hurriedly visited Brasilia for further discussions on the Group with President Lula Da Silva.
On the question of composition it should be recalled that the previous famous group in recent Latin American history which had been established with somewhat similar objectives namely the Contadora group had an exclusively Latin American membership consisting of Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Panama and that they sought the support of the UN General Assembly for their proposals towards resolving the crisis within the Central American states, in particular Nicaragua and El Salvador.
By contrast the Friends of Venezuela include three extra-regional states, the USA, the hemispheric hegemon, and the former metropolitan or colonial powers, Spain and Portugal. As the conflict next door is substantially one between ideologies and classes, the approaches of the Members of the Group of Six will almost certainly reflect their own internal political commitments.
Chavez is therefore likely to see only Lula Da Silva's Brazil as sharing his objectives . On this point US disapproval of the Chavez regime is part of its wider concerns about the growing Pan-American wide emergence of Left-Wing regimes (friendly with Cuba) notably Lula Da Silva's Workers Party in Brazil and still more recently Ecuador's new leader Lucio Gutierrez. US decision makers likewise are concerned that the forthcoming elections in Argentina in March will produce another socialist/populist leader.
In terms of geographical regions, the three Latin States in the Group of Six might be said to represent the major regions as follows Mexico, (Central America) Chile (Andean) Brazil (Southern Cone). The unacceptable omission is the Caribbean. Venezuela with its long Caribbean coastline has long projected itself as a Caribbean State.
It should be the unremitting task of Caribbean diplomacy to ensure that the Caribbean is always perceived as part of the wider region. The Caribbean contributes unique elements to the regional identity and resources including its far longer democratic tradition, the special insights which derive from their small size and economies and their unique demographic heritage, of an Afro-Asian population. Moreover, for Caricom, vital interests are involved namely their dependence on the Venezuelan oil facility, Trinidad and Tobago's concerns as an oil producer, and the maintenance of Guyana's territorial integrity.
In addition a Caricom Member state, Haiti, is in a situation very similar to that of Venezuela. After protracted mediation by an OAS/Caricom team there is no solution in sight on the conflict between the Aristide government and opposition elements. Is it not likely that a similar group-of-six formula could be applied there soon?
The mediatory efforts of the six, if only because of US participation will almost certainly be powerfully influenced by the ideas on the effective exercise of representative democracy which have been developed in recent years within the OAS and which have now been formulated in the Declaration of Lima, the Inter American Democratic Charter, September 2001. The US government played the foremost role in securing endorsement of the Charter. Several states including Venezuela had expressed reservations about particular provisions of the Charter. It will be recalled that Colin Powell had been in Lima on the fateful day of September 11, mainly to ensure that despite such reservations there was universal acceptance of the Charter. The US having invested such a huge diplomatic effort in the Charter, it would be surprising if it was not invoked during the forthcoming mediation, especially as it has already been invoked in connection with the April short-lived coup in Caracas. In this connection the OAS adopted a Declaration of Democracy in Venezuela at its Barbados Assembly in June last year. That Declaration while considering that in April "there was a serious alteration of the constitutional order and an interruption of democracy" rejected "the use of violence to replace any democratic government in the hemisphere".
The Barbados Declaration reiterated a key provision of the Lima Declaration namely that "the essential elements of representative democracy include inter alia respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, access to the exercise of power in accordance with the rule of law, the holding of periodic, free and fair elections based on secret balloting and universal suffrage as an expression of the sovereignty of the people, the pluralistic system of political parties and oganisations, and the separation of powers"
The Barbados Declaration also welcomed all international collaborative initiatives that inter alia support the OAS effort in resolving the political crisis in Venezuela, thus opening the way for the Group of Six.
The Lima Declaration which has 28 Articles also recognises the role for the "responsible participation of the citizenry within a legal framework conforming to the respective constitutional order" and (ll) "the right of any person or group of persons who consider that their human rights have been violated" to present claims or petitions to the OAS.
Hence there is room for protracted negotiations on the constitutional order in Venezuela.
It seems unlikely that President Carter's proposals will bypass or render unnecessary the work of the Group of Six. Carter's proposals seek agreement on an amendment of the constitution which would bring forward the election from 2007 or alternatively that the referendum on Chavez's rule be held on August 19 or soon thereafter, as already provided for in the constitution. Indeed one report states the US participated in the first meeting of the Group in Washington on Friday, 24th January. Colin Powell represented the US. The opposition elements had sent a delegation to Washington.
There are already, clearly, misgivings and conditions on both sides with Chavez insisting that the proposed constitutional amendment conform to existing constitutional requirements and the opposition elements taking a wait and see attitude.
These developments are clearly of the highest relevance to Guyana not only because of the territorial controversy which has effectively eliminated investment in the Essequibo region but also because of the virtual "interruption of the democratic order" (to use the language of the Lima Declaration) by the current withdrawal of Guyana's major opposition party from parliament. One cannot rule out that at some stage OAS assistance will be invited toward a solution of the current situation.
Urgent consideration should therefore be given as to whether Guyana should initiate action so that Caricom could have an Observer-presence when the Group of Six meets. There is a current precedent for this. Arab delegations were, it is reported, admitted as Observers when a somewhat similar group, the Quartet (the US, the EU, Russia and the UN) met in London two weeks ago to negotiate a "road map" for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
It often seems that Guyana's diplomacy evades or avoids some issues which affect Guyana's vital national interests.
