PNM victory forecast for Tobago election
|
PNM victory forecast for Tobago election
- 20-year upset expected for NARAnalysis by Rickey Singh
Guyana Chronicle
January 29, 2001
AMID the ongoing constitutional/political battle between Prime Minister Basdeo Panday and President ANR Robinson, the main opposition People's National Movement (PNM) seems heading for a political victory today in Tobago that has been elusive for some 20 years.
The latest poll forecast could bring tears to the once dominant National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR) - whose founder and former leader was Robinson. But it promises joy for the PNM that has been knocking at the THA door for control since 1980.
Last evening marked the climax of campaigning for the 12-member Tobago House of Assembly (THA) that became quite intense following the December 11 election for the Trinidad and Tobago 36-seat House of Assembly.
That election was won by Panday's incumbent United National Congress (UNC) with 19 of the 34 seats it contested in Trinidad.
Not since the THA came into existence in 1980, then as a four-member legislature responsible to the Central Government in Port-of-Spain for the affairs of Tobago, has an election for that body commanded such widespread interest in the twin-island republic.
The primary reason is that for the first time, the UNC has entered the battle for the THA, breaking the pattern of successive duels between two traditional combatants -National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR) and the PNM, with the former always emerging in control of the Assembly.
According to a poll conducted for the 'Trinidad Publishing Company' and released yesterday, the PNM is tipped to gain an outright victory.
Another new party in the race is the People's Empowerment Party (PEP). But it appears to lack the 'pep' in the fight against the NAR, PNM and now the UNC.
This poll, however, contrasts with other assessments that place the NAR ahead of the UNC, but by no means winning the election, unless, in the words of a Tobagonian elections monitor, "by a miracle that is not expected".
Evidently inspired by his party's victory at last month's national election - with two of his successful 19 candidates currently facing challenges in the court - Prime Minister Panday decided to throw the proverbial 'hat in the ring' to test what support there may be for his UNC.
Despite boastful predictions of winning control of the THA, political pundits are of the view that for a party that has never contested in Tobago, either for national or local government election, the crafty Panday is really out to ascertain what level of popular support there is in that tourist isle, rather than seriously expect victory.
Tobago has traditionally been regarded as the stronghold of ANR Robinson and whatever party he headed as the best known distinguished "son of Tobago" - much to the deep disappointment of the PNM, even while the late Prime Minister Eric Williams lived.
Following his break with Williams and the PNM, Robinson was to form in 1976 his Democratic Action Congress (DAC) which has had the embarrassing reputation of failing to win a single seat at successive elections in Trinidad, but always retaining the two Tobago seats for the nation's parliament.
The only time that Robinson managed to gain national political acceptance, as distinct from standing prominence in Tobago, was when his party teamed up with that of Panday and others to form the National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR).
Having succeeded in 1986 in finally ending some 35 years of successive governments by the PNM - from Williams to George Chambers and Patrick Manning - the then "one love" NAR, a party of parties, was to experience a serious rupture with a fall-out between then Prime Minister Robinson and Panday.
Robinson's NAR was to be humiliated at the polls in November 1991, while Panday's UNC ran second to the PNM that recaptured the central government for a term. But the NAR continued to retain the two Tobago parliamentary seats and control of the THA.
However, the decline of NAR's popularity in Tobago had started long before Robinson coalesced with Panday following the November 1995 election at which both the PNM and UNC emerged with 17 seats each.
Political observers have often wondered whether the dislike by Robinson for the PNM, that dates back to the 'Williams era', is greater than that for the UNC.
Well, current public squabbles between Robinson and Panday may very well have answered that more in the PNM's favour than the UNC's.
Nevertheless, in the battle for control of the THA, there is no love between the PNM and the NAR, whose Tobago 'leader' and driving force is Hochoy Charles, the combative Chief Secretary. His own virulent personal dislike for Panday is certainly no secret.
It is left to be seen whether Charles himself may survive the trouncing that the latest poll predicts for the PNM. Or, perhaps, Panday's UNC may still produce an unexpected good showing as a 'first timer' in Tobago -without control.
Follow the goings-on in Guyana
in Guyana Today