`A people's great strength to laugh at themselves...'

THE results of early opinion polls are out, varying between declining support for the incumbent United National Congress (UNC) and a dead heat between it and the main opposition People's National Movement (PNM).

And the UNC and PNM are in the process of screening potential candidates for the December 10 general election in preparation for Nomination Day on November 19. So too is a rump of the UNC, better known as a UNC 'Committee of 12', led by ex-Attorney General Ramesh Maharaj.

With some six weeks to go in what is perhaps the most crucial election for an incumbent party since the PNM was first defeated back in 1986 after nearly 30 years in power, the political excitement and tension are on the rise.

But for all the challenges, real and imagined, he faces from once bosom pal `Ramesh', his ex-AG, Prime Minister Basdeo Panday is revealing his own canny sense of humour at the expense of the PNM's Patrick Manning with his picong (teasing) equation of three 'hat trick' poll victories to a 'Patrick'.

Manning himself cannot be so preoccupied with his 'voter-padding' allegations not to enjoy the fun and help in easing some of the political tension as the campaign intensifies for the December 10 poll.

One of the great strengths of the people of Trinidad and Tobago has always been that abundant capacity to laugh at themselves -- laugh over their political troubles, economic and social problems; laugh amid the storms. As they say, it is better to laugh than cry.

They should keep it that way. Yes, even amid all of today's incremental allegations of 'bobol', a lot without any hard evidence but not to be ignored, plus the overflowing bitterness from a temporary UNC 'Committee of 12' led by an ex-Attorney General.

The hope is that the politics of hate and spite now being manifested, even before the dissolution of parliament for the December 10 poll, do not get out of hand. And that time and energy will be usefully spent in the coming weeks of campaigning to help voters really understand what policies they can expect from a new government.

Participating in Jamaica's "Breakfast Club" radio talk show last week with the political scientist and pollster Selwyn Ryan, and women's rights advocate Hazel Brown, the latter provoked laughter among all of us when she cited some stone-throwing incidents at a political event to illustrate the growing tension at home for next month's election.

Telling Jamaicans and Guyanese about 'stone throwing' incidents at election time is really to remind them of how disciplined and civilised people here can be, in contrast to the mindless violence that often surfaced in those two Caribbean Community (CARICOM) states, especially in Jamaica.

Frankly, more of political picong is to be desired -- and neither Panday nor Manning can be in short supply -- than the verbal scythes slashing away at reputations and making hate politics a virtue.

After all, when the verdict comes in from the electorate on December 10, symbols and parties and manifestos will simply have to give way to political maturity and common sense for a peaceful way of life with, hopefully, stable, competent and democratic governance.

MANNING'S EDGE
Right now, Manning is understandably cherishing the prospect of proving Panday wrong by his PNM strategy to foil the incumbent's expectation of an electoral 'hat trick'. Let's face it, the split in the ranks of the UNC that has pushed Panday on the back foot, does give Manning's PNM a starting edge it did not have at this phase for election 2000.

The capacity of what remains of the National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR) to enter even a limited contest for the election cannot be flattering to its current leadership.

Further, Manning does not have to worry about any potential threat from his former Finance Minister, Wendell Mottley, as it is now evident that what is being profiled as a "Citizens Alliance" will be a non-starter for the December 10 stake for which Panday and Manning remain the two thoroughbreds.

Indeed, Manning was quite optimistic when I interviewed him, that this time around the PNM "will be back in power" and, as it was for election 2000, "we are going it alone" for 2001. That signals no "alliances", "arrangements" or "accommodations".

How this will impact on the hopes of the least of the "others" seeking power under various names and symbols, may best be assessed following the completion of official nominations on November 19.

But the shrewd UNC organiser, Sadiq Bask for one, is ready with his prediction: "Not one seat for them", Baksh told me last week. Read his 'them" to mean "Ramesh and his group", including former cabinet colleagues, Ralph Maraj and Trevor Sudama.

Panday has been engaging in some spin of his own, talking last week of being so "confident" of "an easy win" that he could risk going into the election without the UNC's rising sun symbol, although he is hopeful that the Electoral and Boundaries Commission (EBC) will rule in his favour and save him from his "Humming Bird plan B".

The decision to use the party's name and symbol will shortly be forthcoming from the EBC now that it has met Panday's delegation and that of Maharaj's.

Whatever interpretations are applied to the relevant sections of the UNC constitution in terms of leadership and decision-making processes, it does not require a rocket scientist to appreciate that Panday, warts and all, remains the popular leader of the UNC with mass support of legitimate members.

In contrast, such mass support is only a dream for him who never got the nod -- wrongly perhaps -- to act, even once, as Prime Minister, and whose every new political outburst or activity sends the clear message of a readiness to prevent the return of the UNC to government under Panday's leadership.

Call it politics of spite or retribution, if you want. It is quite unpleasant but acceptable in what passes for electoral politics here and in other similar situations elsewhere when 'friends' or political 'bedfellows' fall out.

However, all contestants and parties do have a moral obligation to keep the campaign free of violence and inspire a preference for wholesome picong to poisoned propaganda and the stirrings of divisions that may be personally emotionally appealing but dangerously counter-productive for the national interest.

It is an election that holds much interest for the rest of the region, coming just one year after the voters of that country went to the polls and, evidently, are not happy to go back so soon.