Poll puts PPP/Civic out front
A POLL here by the New York-based North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) has put the governing People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/Civic) ahead of other groups in voter preference. NACTA is not affiliated with any political party in Guyana or in the Caribbean. The poll was conducted in July 1999 and co-ordinated by political scientist Vishnu Bisram who did similar surveys in 1997, 1996, 1992 and 1991 in Guyana and annually from 1995 to 1999 in Trinidad. The surveys in Trinidad accurately predicted the outcome of the elections in 1995, 1996, and 1999. A political opinion poll is a portrait of voters' political preference and attitudes during a particular point in time and is used to predict the outcome of elections the world over. NACTA conducted a survey last July to determine change in voter preference since the December 1997 elections as well as to find out people's views on a number of important issues confronting the nation. For the survey, 720 adults were randomly interviewed to yield a demographically representative sample of the voting population. People were polled from among the towns and sub-urban and rural areas. The results of the poll were analysed at a 95 per cent significance level and a statistical sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points was found. This means that in theory, in 19 cases out of 20, the results based on such a sample will differ by no more than five percentage points in either direction from what should have been obtained by seeking to interview the whole voting population. Sampling results based on smaller subgroups may have a larger potential sampling error. NACTA's survey is showing that the incumbent PPP/Civic has taken an early lead in public opinion midway through its second term in office. But elections are not constitutionally due until early 2001 and since Guyana's political environment is somewhat fluid, political opinion (and fortune) can change by election day. Nevertheless, according to the poll, the ruling party has a nine point lead over the opposition PNC. The incumbent PPP/Civic polls 39% of popular support compared with 30% for the PNC. The poll is also showing the newly formed ROAR with six per cent support and the mini-parties, the WPA, TUF, and JFA, with about one per cent support each. The GGG and GDP are polling negligible support. Ten per cent of the nation said they will not vote and 12 per cent said they are undecided or refused to give a response on how they will vote; as the undecided voters make up their minds, their votes will only serve to increase the popular support for the parties in contention. Overall, the PPP/Civic and the combined opposition are tied at 39%. Since the poll has a sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points, the results could vary 5% in either direction. It should be noted that respondents who said they will vote ROAR indicated that they will vote for PPP/Civic should ROAR not contest elections thereby increasing the PPP/Civic's support to 45%. Also, support for ROAR is soft and could be easily weaned back to the PPP/Civic especially if voting for ROAR will deny the PPP/Civic the formation of the government. The findings of the survey reveal once again that "race" plays an important role in the political preference of voters. The PPP/Civic and ROAR are solidly supported by Indo-Guyanese while the PNC is solidly supported by Afro-Guyanese and Mixed; support for the PPP/Civic and PNC among the other races is limited. The WPA, TUF and JFA continue to enjoy a `somewhat balanced Support' among the diverse races. Both the PPP/Civic and PNC seem to have lost support from their performance in 1997 while the WPA and TUF have maintained their base. Support for the PPP and PNC is more national in scope while support for the mini-parties is restricted to certain areas of Demerara and the interior regions; and except for ROAR none of the mini-parties enjoy widespread appeal in Berbice. The GDP has lost virtually all of its support in the Skeldon area and the GGG has lost its base in Georgetown. Guyanese were also surveyed on a number of other issues. According to the survey, in terms of the nation's satisfaction with the PPP/Civic government's performance, less than a majority are satisfied with the way the current government is running the country; the government enjoys a lower approval rating (42%) than the President (45%). And these figures are much lower than the approval rating of the late President Cheddi Jagan who enjoyed a 66% approval rating in the last poll conducted just before his death. With Dr. Jagan no longer around, there is growing dissatisfaction with the government. Some 39% of Guyanese are dissatisfied with the current government's performance and 35% are dissatisfied with the President's performance in office. When asked to compare their current standard of living with that when the PNC was in government, 48% Guyanese find they are better off today. Thirty one per cent said they are worse off today than when the PNC ruled the nation. Eleven per cent said their standard of living then and now is about the same and 10 per cent had no response. In terms of the most important problems facing the nation, deteriorating race relations, political instability, crime, drugs government incompetence, and economic problems, are uppermost on the minds of the people. Some 22% of the voters said racism is the most important problem facing the nation followed by political instability (18%) drugs (16%), crime (16%), government incompetence (12%) and economics (9%) (unemployment and high cost of living) and other problems or no response (7%). But almost everyone feels that all of the above problems are related to each other and that all are equally important in terms of their effects on the nation. In terms of which party they trust more to govern Guyana, 46% of the respondents said they trust the PPP/Civic, 33% PNC, 3% for WPA, 2% for TUF, and 15% for all other parties or those not offering a response. A significant number of Guyanese felt that there was a plot to destabilise the government (during the politically motivated strike) of June. Some 43% of respondents said that they believe there was such a plot as compared with 29% who said they do not believe there was such a plot and 28% who did not have an opinion or offer a response. Also, a large number of Guyanese expressed a lack of confidence in the police and armed forces to defend the law and order situation in the country. Some 45% respondents said they do not believe that the security forces can uphold the law as compared with 35% who show their confidence in the security forces and 20% who do not have an opinion. When asked if the police and armed forces should be racially balanced, half of the respondents were supportive as compared with 30% who were opposed to such a move; 20% had no opinion on the issue. In a similar question relating to the civil service, 465 Guyanese are in favour of balancing the civil service to reflect the racial composition of the nation. Thirty six per cent of Guyanese are opposed to balancing the civil service and 18% have no opinion on the matter. When asked if Ravi Dev's ROAR initiative should be transformed into a political party, only 17% expressed support for such a move with 52% completely opposed and 31% not responding or having no knowledge about ROAR. Guyanese were also queried about constitutional reform. Very few (5%) Guyanese show support for the current constitution. Nearly half of the nation want to return to the British-imposed independence constitution and 36 per cent feel there should be a completely new constitution approved by the nation in a free and fair referendum. Eleven per cent of the nation have no response on the kind of constitution Guyana should have. The mini-parties have been advocating a sharing of political power among the diverse races and political parties. But Guyanese do not express much support for a sharing of political power. Only 22% of the respondents are in favour of such a move compared with 53% who are opposed and 25% who have no opinion on the issue. With regards to who should succeed President Janet Jagan whenever she demitted office, there was no clear preference for a successor. Moses Nagamootto led the pack with 25% in favour of him succeeding Mrs. Jagan as President. Bharrat Jagdeo followed close behind, with a statistical dead heat at 21% and Roger Luncheon third with 17%. They were trailed by Reepu Daman Persaud and Ralph Ramkarran with 6% each and Donald Ramotar with 2%. Twenty three per cent of the respondents expressed no opinion on the issue of Presidential succession. This survey provides a more or less accurate indicator of the level of support for the various parties. However, when reading the results one must bear in mind the possibility that voters, for whatever reasons, may have hidden their true responses on how they plan to vote. How this affects the poll cannot be determined. Also, the political environment in Guyana is influenced by "race" and is fluid. As political momentum builds during an election campaign, voters may turn to the party they perceive to be representing their race. In this event, the mini-parties could be wiped out with the beneficiaries being the two dominant parties and this could lead to a much closer contest. Next week, this newspaper will feature a breakdown of the results based on race.
How the poll was taken The poll was based on interviews systematically conducted between July 24 and 30 with 720 adults in communities throughout Guyana to yield a demographically representative (by race, gender, class, age, education, residence, religion) sample. The racial proportions chosen for the sample are estimates for the national population and may not necessarily represent the actual composition of the population. No one is certain about the exact racial distribution of the population because the last census taken was in 1990 and we are yet to see the figures. But the actual racial breakdown of the population is not likely to deviate significantly from the proportions chosen for the sample. Any errors in the composition of the random sample are accounted for in the margin of error of plus or minus five per cent. The turnout among the diverse races may not actually reflect the composition of the sample. In such an event, the results will vary. The sample of people polled was drawn randomly. The results of the survey have not been weighted to take into account household size or to adjust for other variations in the sample relating to constituency, race, sex, age, class, and education, and other social factors. This may have introduced some errors in the poll but not significant enough to alter the results. In addition to sampling error and other problems noted above, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of public opinion in Guyana might also introduce other sources of error into the poll. But these are not likely to significantly alter the results of the poll.
** Mr. Bisram has been conducting surveys in New York, Guyana and Trinidad since 1989; NACTA's surveys have been on target. He is the holder of several undergraduate and post-graduate degrees from American universities in the natural and social sciences. Bisram was trained as a political scientist at New York University and City University of New York.
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