Human Development Report 2001

The publication last week of the UNDP's Human Development Report 2001, is a sharp reminder of how quickly time flies. This series on globalisation started nearly a year ago, on September 10, 2000. That date was close to the publication date of last year's Human Development Report, which I have covered earlier in the series.

The passage of time allows me to pursue in this and subsequent articles, questions pertaining to whether or not, new data unearthed and provided by the UNDP in the present Report, support or refute some of the earlier analysis. Because the central argument of this series has been that globalisation is a complex but intrinsically uneven process, I shall begin with an evaluation of whether or not the new data support this hypothesis.

Two-edged sword

The UNDP Report stresses the two-edged nature of globalisation. The record shows that, overall, impressive gains have been made in the developing world. Thus, over the decade 1990-99 the per capita annual GDP growth rate of developing countries as a group was 3.2 per cent. This figure exceeded the global rate of growth of 1.1 per cent; that of the high-income countries (only 1.6 per cent); and, that of Eastern Europe and the CIS (minus 3.4 per cent). Regrettably however, this impressive growth was confined to a few developing countries, known as the emerging markets.

When the data are closely examined, it is observed that the 48 "least developed countries" as a group had a growth rate of only 0.8 per cent. In the troublesome case of Sub-Saharan Africa, the growth rate was negative, minus 0.4 per cent. In our region of Latin America and the Caribbean, the annual growth rate of GDP per capita was about one-half the overall rate for developing countries, that is, 1.7 per cent.

Millennium goals

This uneven performance has meant that many of the basic Millennium Global Development Goals for 2015 are still in danger of not being met. Since good health and long and healthy lives are necessary foundations for development, the Millennium Goals set a number of targets for health. One of these is for the developing countries to reduce both their under-five mortality rates and their infant mortality rates by two-thirds by 2015. What has been the record so far? While 66 countries are reported as being "on-track" to achieve this under-five mortality goal, 93 countries with two-thirds of the world's population are in the three categories of either lagging, far behind, or slipping. Thus, between 1990 and 1999, the under five mortality rate for developing countries still remains very high, having fallen from 93 per 1,000 live births to 80.

In the case of the infant mortality rate, 63 countries are "on-track", with as many as 82, either lagging, far behind, or slipping. In both cases the bulk of the countries are "far behind."

The target for the maternal mortality ratio is for developing countries to reduce it by three-quarters. Thirteen countries have achieved this so far. Forty-nine are "on-track" to make the target. However, 83 countries are lagging or far behind. Thankfully, no country appears to be slipping. The situation however remains grim and the target unlikely to be met for a large proportion of the world's population by 2015.

Education goal

In the area of education, the second main pillar of development, the situation is equally disturbing. Here the Millennium Goal is two-fold: to enroll all children in primary school and to achieve universal completion of primary schooling. In regard to the former, the UNDP reported 32 countries are either "on-track" or had already achieved this goal. This accounted for about one-third of the world's population. Twenty-six countries were either lagging, far behind, or slipping. There were no available data for most of the developing countries.

In regard to the second education indicator, the universal completion of primary schooling, 40 developing countries had achieved the target or were "on-track." This accounted for just over one-quarter of the world's population. However, 43 developing countries were in the negative territory, either lagging, far behind, or slipping.

Basic amenities

Let us look at one further goal, that is, access to basic amenities. Here the same pattern emerges. One of the indicators for measuring this is for countries to halve the proportion of people without access to safe water by 2015. To date, 50 developing countries had either achieved this goal or were "on-track" to do so. Unfortunately, these only represented 12 percent of the world's population. As many as 86 developing countries, constituting 70 per cent of the world's population were either lagging, far behind, or slipping in relation to this target.