Over the past two weeks this series sought to establish that Caricom economies, on the whole, attained positive, though moderate rates of growth, in the period of rapid globalisation which occurred during the past two decades. It is true that some economies fared badly for most of this period, notably Guyana and Jamaica. However, others performed well above the average for the region, notably the smaller grouping of the OECS states. On average, in the 1980s, the economies of the OECS grew at a rate which was more than six times faster than that of the Region as a whole. They also grew at about the same rate as the regional average in the 1990s.

This performance was buoyed by many favourable circumstances, which as was pointed out are unlikely to be repeated in the future. This situation, along with past policy failures that have led to massive economic gaps and deficits, as well as the structural and systemic limitations imposed by small size and a high degree of openness, mean that if the 'glass of development' in the region is at best half-filled, it is also at the same-time half-empty. As we shall see, this makes the region very vulnerable. And, the events of September 11 and their aftermath are likely to demonstrate this truth in a dramatic way.

Human development

The point that I wish to focus on this week is that the social performance of the region has also been moderately good. Compared to other developing regions, there is much for which we can boast. With the exception of Haiti, all the countries of the region enjoy either a high or a medium- level of human development, based on the UNDP's Human Development Index (HDI). In the year 2001, Barbados ranked at number 31, and the Bahamas ranked at 42. Both were classed at a high-level of human development. This classification was awarded to only 48 of the 162 countries reported on by the UNDP. Trinidad and Tobago at rank 49 was at the top of the 77 countries classed as having a medium-level of human development. Haiti was ranked at number 134. Antigua-Barbuda was also classed at a high-level of human development in Year 2000, the last year for which data on that country is available.

Demographic transition

Another indicator of social development is the demographic profile of the region. On the whole, its population has doubled over the past 50 years. It has increased by about one-fifth over the past two decades. With this growth there has come an increase in urbanisation, as more and more persons seek to live in the capital cities and other urban centres. Over time, the population aged over 60 years has also risen as a proportion of the total population. Meanwhile, those under 15 years old have been reduced as a proportion of the total population. The average household size has become quite small-averaging just over 4 persons per household. The picture presented here is more characteristic of the mature population profile of a developed economy, which has already gone through a 'demographic transition.'

There are other indicators in support of the contention that this transition has been attained. One is life expectancy. In the region, with the exception of Haiti and Guyana, life expectancy at birth is 70 years and above, and for some countries it is as high as 77 years. Accompanying this, there have been significant reductions in the crude death rate (to single digit numbers per 1000 persons). Fertility rates have also declined, and for most countries it is less than three. On average, women outlive men by five years, and in some instances female life expectancy at birth is as high as 80 years.

Health transition

In the area of health there is also striking evidence of a 'health transition' having occurred. Since Independence there has been a drastic decline in death from communicable diseases like malaria, influenza, and tuberculosis. There has also been a sharp fall in the incidence of malnutrition and malnutrition-related ailments such as anaemia among infants, children, and lactating women. This reflects improved access to food, in large part due to the increased incomes that have accompanied economic growth. Immunization programmes for infants, children, and adults have been remarkably successful. There have also been remarkable declines in infant, child, and maternal mortality. All these occurrences have contributed a great deal to the increased life span of persons, which we already noted.

Throughout the region there have been marked improvements in sanitation. Safe water access is now guaranteed to 100 per cent of the population in several countries. Proper sewerage systems are near universal in many countries. Refuse collection and the safe disposal of garbage have both been considerably improved from the past. Food inspection systems are in place and government appointed bureaus of standards operate effectively in most countries. In the area of reproductive health there has also been much improvement. The contraceptive prevalence rate has risen significantly, while pre and post-natal clinics operate in most districts of individual countries. Reproductive health promotion is also pursued with considerable earnestness in all the media and at schools.

Education

A similar picture of positive achievement can also be observed in other areas of social development. For example, in education and learning there have been notable successes. In the region, staff-pupil ratios in primary and secondary schools are 1:20 and lower for most countries. This compares quite well with other developing regions. Government expenditure on education as a proportion of the national budget, as well as total private and government expenditure on education as a proportion of GDP/GNP also out-perform most other developing regions. Adult literacy rates are also very high, reaching virtually 100 per cent for several countries. Finally, combined gross enrolment ratios in primary, secondary, and tertiary-level educational institutions, compare quite well with other developing regions, reaching percentages in the upper 70s for several countries.