Growth pegged at 2.3% this year
The economy is expected to register an overall growth of 2.3% this year, 0.5% above projections, mainly as a result of a good performance by the sugar industry and recovery in the manufacturing sector. Inflation (overall price increases) on the other hand, is running between 9.5% and 10.5% as against the annual target of 5.5%. Data released to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) review team in Guyana, says the economy grew by 6.2% in the third quarter, as against two per cent for the first half of the year. The government had projected a 1.8% growth for this year, after the negative 1.8% output last year. Projection for year 2000 is for economic growth of 2.3% and inflation of 10%. The sugar industry's performance (production of 92,471 metric tonnes) for the third quarter, reflected a 48% increase over the same period last year. At the end of September, the Guyana Sugar Corporation's (GUYSUCO) output was 217,697 metric tonnes, a 43% increase over that period in 1998. With 186,288 metric tonnes expected from sugar's second crop, total output for the industry is projected at 311,514 tonnes, a 21.9% increase over 1998 compared with the projected increase of 5.6%. The rice sector also did better than expected but suffered setbacks from doing better due to the wet weather conditions in the second crop and delayed harvesting. Total production for the rice sector is expected to be 383,608 metric tonnes, a 12% increase over 1998 as against the projection of 3.3%. So far, the second crop has already yielded an equivalent of 127,621 metric tonnes of rice. Forestry output at the end of the third quarter also increased (by 9.3%) to reach 360,191 cubic metres. The manufacturing sector registered an overall growth of 10.3% for the third quarter despite a fall in beverage output by 10%. Pharmaceuticals grew by 13.2%, food manufacturing grew by 42.8% whilst other manufacturing increased its output by 12%. And though garments, footwear, refrigerators and stoves production fell, significant increases in soap, stockfeed and paint production made up for those losses. Plywood production increased by 33.7% over the 1998 third quarter figure. However, in the construction sector, the number of mortgages in the third quarter fell by 26.37% (reflecting 192 less mortgages compared with the same period last year). But in the Public Sector Investment Programme, there was an increase of 17.43%. And despite a slight increase in shrimp catch for the year so far, the fishing sector has suffered a decline in real output by five per cent. In the livestock subsector, egg production increased by 30.7% while poultry production fell by 9.1%. The mining sector saw decreases in production with bauxite output falling by 9.6% at 1.6 million metric tonnes at the end of the third quarter. Gold declaration also fell by 9.9% as against the third quarter last year. Omai Gold Mines Ltd's declaration fell by 8.8% compared with 12.7% by local producers. Diamond declaration also fell by six per cent. As a result, the real output index for mining and quarrying registered a negative growth of 11.4% with bauxite contributing most to the decline. In the services sector, the telephone company's operation was most noticeable with inbound traffic increasing by 19.5% in the third quarter compared to last year. While audio traffic fell by 40.8%, it was inbound traffic which accounted for 50% of the company's profit. There was also a general increase in the postal traffic sector. And in the air transport sector, the addition of new carriers has reflected itself in a marked increase in outbound and incoming traffic of 27.8% and 27.17% increases respectively, compared with the same period last year.
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