He noted that real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent, slightly stronger than the satisfactory 1.9 per cent growth in the Guyana economy last year.

He said on a post-budget panel discussion programme at the GTV 11 studios in Georgetown, that this projection is premised on the continuation of the recovery in the productive sectors that was evident last year.

The two per cent projection was informed generally by the sectors on which Guyana really depend for its economic growth such as rice, sugar and the sub-sectors, and the economic trends in the world, he explained.

"If you look at the forecast in economic trends for this year you will see that largely there is projected growth of about 2.4 per cent (and) I would say that we are within realistic targeting when we say that we want to put the growth rate to about two per cent. It may even go beyond the projected two per cent if all the other sectors pick up," Kowlessar asserted.

"We would like to be very realistic at this stage...despite still having a difficult economic situation to deal with locally and internationally," he added.

He noted that sugar production is budgeted to grow by 8.4 per cent to 308,349 metric tonnes while the ideal cane growing conditions of 2001 are expected to continue this year.

Rice output is projected to increase by 3.6 per cent to 332,000 metric tonnes, reflecting increased acreage under cultivation as a result of the alleviation of some of the financial difficulties faced by farmers.

After recovering slightly in 2001, forestry is projected to decline by one per cent to 431,195 cubic metres, largely on account of difficult external market conditions and the noticeable shift away from timber to concrete in the building industry, the Finance Minister said.

Other agricultural areas are targeted to grow as follows: livestock - five per cent; other crops - two per cent; and fishing - three per cent.

With him on the panel were two of the main architects of the 2002 Budget preparation, Mr. Winston Jordan, Budget Consultant in the Finance Ministry and Dr. Ashni Singh, Budget Director in the ministry. Others on the panel were Mr. Martin Goolsarran, General Manager of GTV and Mr. Mark Bhagwandin, Editor-in-Chief of the Guyana Broadcasting Corporation (GBC).

Kowlessar, giving a deeper insight into several aspects of the largest budget ever in Guyana's history, said the rate of inflation for this year is projected at five per cent, the exchange rate is expected to be stable, and the international reserve is expected to exceed target once more.

Among other targets this year are additional investments in the economy and creating more jobs.

He also pointed out that the budget seeks to continue progress towards transforming Guyana from a low income, agricultural-dependent to a middle income, semi-industrial country that will boast a higher per capita income and a better educated population enjoying a better quality of life.

He noted that last year "we performed very well in terms of growth (and) in terms of the macro-economic indicators."

"...we have always tried to make sure we maintain the macro-economic stability that we have had over the years," he said on the one-hour programme aired live.

"Last year was a better year for us compared to 2000; we had a real GDP growth of 1.9 per cent and that compares favourably with the world trends as well as the Caribbean region," Kowlessar said. In this regard, he noted that Guyana and Jamaica were the only countries in the Caribbean that recorded positive economic growth for last year.

"When one looks at the other macro-economic fundamentals, the inflation rate was the lowest...we had the lowest inflation in about three decades, about two per cent; the interest rates have declined substantially, the various rates have declined to about seven per cent; the exchange rate has remained fairly stable; we've only had a depreciation of about 2.6 per cent for last year.

"...our performance was fairly good for last year as compared to 2000."

Asked how the Government was able to manage the economy so well, resulting in a surprise 1.9 % growth given the economic situation internationally and at home, Kowlessar said the administration had paid great attention to Guyana's macro-economic policies and framework and had worked in tandem with set guidelines.

"We have a framework within which we are working. Our economic policy comes out of a framework that is located within the PRSP (Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper) and within the PPP/Civic manifesto and partly in the National Development Strategy," he noted.

"So we have a framework (so there is no guesswork) and we have stuck to those policies and frameworks that we have had in those documents", he explained.

With good weather conditions last year for sugar, rice and other crops "and the fact that we have stuck to our macro-economic framework, I would say that our performance was largely due to these policies and framework," he added.

He also stressed that generally agriculture is the bulwark of the economy and this sector experienced good performance last year including rice and sugar, the two major planks in agriculture.

Kowlessar, in his presentation Friday, said the budget sets out clearly a package of policies, programmes and measures that would stimulate investment and growth, create employment and employment opportunities, and reduce poverty, resulting in an improved standard of living and a brighter future for all Guyanese.

"We envision a Guyana that is not falling behind but stridently pulling itself together, proud of its past achievements and confident about its future," the Finance Minister added.

Jordan recalled that last year's budget was sort of a "holding programme" because of the lateness with which the budget came out (dubbed a `half-year' budget).

"So this year, you can say is the first, real full year of the Government's programme in its new term in office," the Budget Consultant pointed out.

He said too that this year's budget represents the beginning of the modernisation process in sectors like the Guyana Sugar Corporation (GUYSUCO) and the reaching of the completion target of the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative which would allow for an additional US$28M per year to be spent in the social sector.

Singh recalled that in the minister's speech Friday, he mentioned that the notion of economic growth cannot be separated from the question of poverty reduction.

To a great extent, he said, this is reflected in the expenditure profile presented in the budget.

"If you scrutinise in detail the expenditure profile (in the budget) you will see very significant increases in the investments that we are making in health and in education...these reflect the Government's stated policy in terms of poverty reduction and in terms of addressing issues that are believed to be at the root of long-term economic growth," Singh said.