Perhaps the most disappointing feature of the budget is that it contains no explicit recognition of the fact that the economy is depressed and that urgent measures may be needed to stimulate growth. There had been a general call by private sector spokesmen before the budget for a stimulus package but apart from tax relief for tourism resorts, cinemas and the expansion of existing hotels or the construction of new ones there are only vague promises to help promote investments and exports. One had hoped for a much more prominent focus on the need to attract new investment and measures to achieve this, though there are references to anticipated investments in the budget speech.

There are no new taxes so there should be no resulting increase in the cost of living. However, the average worker is already under considerable pressure. Comprehensive tax reform which has been promised for many years is now scheduled for next year and the tax threshold of $l8,000 a month was left unchanged. An increase to $20,000 would have meant that persons earning $20,000 a month would have saved $4,800 a year in tax (20% of $24,000).

There will be continuing investment in education, health and housing, which is welcome, as well as in water and sanitation services, bridges and sea defences, and drainage and irrigation.

The external debt burden has been reduced considerably in recent years thus providing considerable relief in the expenditure on debt servicing. The amount budgeted for this year is $ll.6 billion and expected relief under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative of $6.4 billion has also been catered for.

In a useful feature of their annual analysis Ram & McRae include previous budget promises which were not implemented. These include tax reform (promised since l993 and as the Private Sector Commission has stressed in a recent press release this should be a matter of great urgency as the tax base is far too narrow and they have been ready and willing to participate in crafting a new policy), new procurement legislation and civil service reform. Of course as those with practical experience are well aware, talking about things and doing them, especially when they are complex and involve other interests, are entirely different propositions. The road to economic failure is paved with good intentions.

Perhaps one expects too much from budgets, after all they are partly an accounting mechanism, like a board of directors reporting annually to shareholders on their stewardship. Where there are no new taxes (and that cannot go on forever, whether the work on tax reform is completed or not) the minister of finance is left to announce new programmes for capital or current expenditure, new legislation and plans to make or encourage new investment.

The government's monetary policies are identified to include maintaining the stability of the exchange rate (a 2.6% depreciation in 200l) and containing inflation, the target for 2002 is 5%. Sugar is to restructure and modernise, there is a l0 year strategic plan for rice and efforts will continue to sell the two main state owned bauxite companies. Garment manufacturing parks will be developed in strategic locations to stimulate production and exports (investment of US $7.7m is expected this year) and in the technology sector the government plans aggressive targeting of new investment (US $8.2 is expected this year in the form of two telecentres and a medical prescription service). Mechanisms are being but in place to boost the export of fish and fish products to the European Union and a five year plan has been developed for organic agriculture with special emphasis on cocoa, peanuts and cashew nuts. Investment in aquafarming, cattle farming and fish processing worth US $8.5 million is expected this year. There is also a vague assurance that help will be given with export and investment promotion and the expansion of small businesses and cottage industries.

The budget is too bland given the situation. We would like to have seen a greater sense of urgency on the promotion of investments. The Minister said it is anticipated that the investments expected this year will provide 3,449 new jobs and the government will implement a Temporary Employment and Maintenance Programme to line between 300-400 unskilled persons to remove derelict vehicles, clean drains and weed grass verges on the roads. Better than nothing, but perhaps not enough in the circumstances.