The overall increase in price levels for the first six months of 2002 was recorded by the Bureau of Statistics as 4.1% and reports indicate that the economic growth was computed at about 3.2% for the first half-year but this is being revised downward.
Meanwhile, the Economic Policy Unit within the Private Sector Commission has expressed concerns about the lack of convincing data from the Bureau of Statistics in a recent statement on its own assessment of the economy’s performance at mid year.
No official figures have been released on the computation of economic growth but Stabroek News was informed that the figure arrived at by the Bureau is 3.2% but this is now being looked at anew.
The Bureau issued a statement on Monday on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures the increases in price levels using a fixed basket of goods. It said that the year-to-date (December to June) increase in prices of 4.1% was a result of a 1.8% increase in the cost of food items, a 4.4% rise in housing prices, a 15.3% hike in the cost of transport and communications, a 2.7% spike in medical and personal care costs and a 7.3% jump in the cost of educational, recreational and cultural services.
The price increase in the category of clothing was recorded at 0.2%, whereas the CPI found that furniture prices dropped by 0.1% and miscellaneous goods and services prices declined by half of a per cent.
The Bureau of Statistics said in June alone, price levels overall went up by 0.9% as a result of a 2.1% hike in the prices of food items with vegetables and vegetable products prices going up by 18.6% and fruits and fruit products prices climbing by 6.1%. The Bureau said that the increases in the prices in the sub groups were due to factors such as the recent disturbances on the East Coast of Demerara which created artificial shortages while seasonal patterns also affected supply. Meanwhile, some of the production figures submitted to the Bureau of Statistics show that rice production in the first half of the year declined by 5.8% compared with the same period last year. Output was 161,751 tonnes at the end of June.
Though all the figures for sugar production are not in, the industry recorded a 31.3% increase in output for the first half of the year.
The mining sector saw a decline in production with the exception of diamonds where declarations went up by 129% at 113,968 carats. Bauxite production declined by 18.5% to 745,383 tonnes at the end of June while raw gold declaration fell by 13.7% at 188,652 troy ounces. The manufacturing sector fared better than the first half of 2001 with pharmaceutical production soaring by an average 79%, footwear production increasing by 125.3% and stockfeed production by 22.7%. The beverage industry also did well with rum production increasing by 8.7%, beer and milk stout by 9.4%, Malta by 12%, Guinness by 69.2%, wine by 22.3% and shandy by 36.8%.
On the other hand, corrugated carton production slumped by 23.9% and sanitary napkins by 47.9%. Paint production increased by 6.6% and putty by 21.4%. Forestry output slumped in the period under review but figures are not available.
The Economic Policy Unit of the PSC, while noting the few bright spots in the economy’s performance in the first half year, said unless there is significant new growth in the second half of the year in the weak services and rice sectors, the projected real growth of 2% is not likely to be achieved this year.
The Unit said it is uncertain about the manufacturing sector given data problems with the Statistical Bureau as the data suggest creditable strength in certain areas while weak commercial bank lending to the sector seems to imply a less optimistic assessment.
A statement from the unit said that the slow pace of commercial lending, the high level of non-performing loans, the high levels of excess liquidity in the banking system and the high interest rates are worrying factors that will dampen prospects of early and rapid economic growth. The statement added that the fiscal position of the government deteriorated over the review period despite rising tax revenues and domestic outstanding debt is in decline while foreign borrowings have risen.
“The Private Sector Commission remains cautiously optimistic that modest gains in gross domestic product can be realised but expressed concern over the fragile nature of some sectors and the absence of convincing data to enable a more thorough analysis,” the statement said.