Year of the War

On the international scene, the success rate was less bad but there were no bouquets for predicting that with George Bush in the White House it would be a year of the war on terrorism, corruption and Iraq, and Israel's determination to wipe out the Palestinian 'freedom fighters' once and for all. But in cricket we also got it wrong when we said that "the West Indies will prove that things can and do get worse." They did not have such a bad year fuelling hopes of a major success at the World Cup. Now that is taking it a bit far, don't you think?

Plain predictions confesses to a terrible record, one that does little for the column's credibility and the thought of quitting or being fired - yes, it still happens in the private sector - is now uppermost in one's mind. But let us see where to start. Like the President let us escape from this God-forsaken place and do a quick review of international developments.

2002 in retrospect

After 9/11 and Enron bad times were predicted in the United States of America. Stifling corporate debt, low inflation, a more cautious investor, perhaps more diligent auditors, new rules on corporate governance, and the extremely slow recovery of the stock market and rising unemployment were expected to keep growth at less than one per cent. Japan, Europe, Canada and Australia were also not expected to show more than very modest growth. In all these countries performance was actually better than expected. And in the emerging countries the situation was fairly similar although Argentina, not too long ago the showpiece of the international financial institutions, practically collapsed.

Africa has continued to disappoint, and Cote d'Ivoire has become the latest tragedy of a continent as rich in resources as it is in the greed of its despots. Kenya is likely to be an exception if only it can oversee a peaceful transition of power after years of almost dictatorial rule. India which long ago lost is innocence witnessed ethnic violence on a worrying scale against the Muslim minority in Gujarat, implicating even the country's government. While the likelihood of a full-scale war between India and Pakistan receded quite significantly in 2002, the violence against the state's 9% Muslim community will do little to build trust and reduce tensions between these two Asian nuclear powers.

Closer to home, however, the situation has not been encouraging. Venezuela is in crisis, Brazil has turned to a trades unionist with populist views, Haiti remains Haiti, the tourist destinations continue to suffer while Barbados remains steady and Trinidad & Tobago, which many predicted would go down the ethnic path of Guyana, has demonstrated its maturity and resilience although it continues to grapple with its first-world crime situation.

2003

So how does 2003 look from this point? One thing for sure - America, the world's only superpower will set, dominate, manipulate and change the world's agenda at will whether it is on the environment, the son of star wars, the World Court, the WTO or its understanding of terrorism. With his majority in both Houses secure, President George Bush will use the year to pursue his conservative agenda while setting the stage for re-election in 2004. George likes war - it runs in the family - and whatever Kofi Annan and the UN might determine or Hans Blix and his weapons inspectors might find or say, America will declare that Saddam is in "material breach" of Resolution 1441 and start a war that will eventually see regime change in Iraq.

The Palestinian crisis poses a dilemma for both sides directly involved in the conflict. Sharon and his hawkish soulmates cannot at this stage admit that military might is not the only way to deal with the crisis while those who lead those who spend so much time on the streets of the West Bank will find it hard to accept a settlement which they had refused only a couple of years ago.

Europe will be taken up in arrangements for expanding membership of the European Club by the admission of ten new and rather poor members, most of which are former communist countries. As a result Europe will be inward-looking and wrestling with the challenge of how to reform its agricultural policy, contribution to the central and bloated bureaucracy, sharing the limited resources that will contribute to reducing inequalities in the Union. How it does this while at the same time pandering to the nationalistic sentiments of the larger countries including founder members France and Germany and the increasingly assertive Britain under Tony Blair will be a mystery. Blair's greatest strength will remain the patronising friendship of George W and the almost rudderless Conservative Party while his only challenge will come from his Chancellor George Brown with whom he seems increasingly uncomfortable.

Axis of Evil

While al Qaeda appears to have been seriously if not mortally wounded it still has the capacity and the influence to inspire the occasional surprise as the one in Bali a few weeks ago. Terrorism remains at the top of the international agenda with the war against it helping to keep Bush's ratings high in the opinion polls at home. North Korea, part of the 'axis of evil' - a term which only Christian fundamentalists such as Reagan and Bush could coin - will continue to keep the world guessing. Donald Rumsfeld,

Bush's war bell-crier has ominously threatened that America is quite capable of fighting two wars simultaneously which would leave only Iran of the axis to be addressed. Any talk of a re-united Korea is likely to come only as a regime change following military action by the United States.

That leaves Iran of the axis of evil to be dealt with but no one seems sure how to do that. Quite what it has done to earn a place in this very select club is not certain although there are suggestions that it has something to do with nuclear weapons. However, few are convinced that Iran poses a threat to its neighbours or the rest of the world. America may find it better to support democracy over theocracy.

Latin and South America will not have any star performers and there seems to be increasing dissatisfaction with the results of market economics which will be blamed for the problems of Argentina. The performance of Brazil and Mexico would be significant for the rest of the area where debt remains a major concern and brake to significant growth. Chile will stand out among the countries of the continent while Chavez may find the opposition almost unbearable but unable to exercise a military option to resolve his plight.

Caricom

The countries of Caricom will have modest growth with some countries, notably Trinidad and Tobago, showing good recovery after the stagnation brought about by political uncertainties of the past few years. Barbados and St Lucia will also do better than average while Jamaica along with Guyana will remain the economies greatest at risk. Regional efforts at the establishment of the Single Market, a single stock exchange and the Caribbean Court of Appeal will have mixed results. Hanging will, however, become very popular even as the level and seriousness of crime escalate. Drugs and AIDS will continue to dominate the social agenda. Despite this lifestyles are more likely to be changed by bandit attacks than by the fear of AIDS.

Guyana with the loss of PNC/R leader Desmond Hoyte will experience further uncertainties. The 'sophisticated leadership' of the 'resistance' will celebrate February 23 by declaring the independence of the State of Buxton while the rest of Guyana wonders about the effectiveness of the police force. Despite this and the fact that his only achievement so far is the placing of the only new traffic light in Georgetown for a few years, the PPP/C will see the retention of Home Affairs Minister Gajraj as a symbol of their determination to assert their right to govern. Others will see it as a symbol of obstinacy.

Robert Corbin will be elected to lead the PNC which will cause concerns in some quarters and lead to a renewed interest in the Catholic Standard and the Mirror of the lost decades. The reform component of the party will become even smaller as the business class of that section seeks greener pastures abroad. The WPA will continue to write letters and issue statements while the larger body of its leadership seeks security abroad. Paul Hardy will surface from time to time.

The Minister of Finance will paint a picture of the economy which few will recognise but will once again fudge the issue of tax evasion, the GRA and tax reform. The ministries will declare that they have achieved an average of 105% of their work plans for the year within the range of 175 per cent and 85 per cent. New legislation brought into law will be largely ignored while the giants of the private sector will continue to ignore all calls for enhanced governance, a practice not known to the government, political parties, civil society and our so-called representative bodies.

Meanwhile the country's so-called sponsors and in particular the USA will take our best and brightest in exchange for criminal deportees without even a murmur of complaint from the left, right or governments. In human resources management, we will be scraping the barrel with all of us rising not as the Peter Principle would suggest to our level of incompetence but well beyond. May the Lord help us all in 2003.

Against all the odds, Business Page wishes all Guyana a more peaceful and productive 2003.