Latest results from opinion polls suggest a likely four to six per cent national swing to the DLP which lost power in 1994 following an opposition no-confidence motion against then Prime Minister Erskine Sandiford.

If this is correct, then it reinforces a growing perception that the DLP may well be on the path of significant recovery in to position itself to resume control of state power at a new general election to follow that of May 21 - which has come some ten months early.

Further, the published opinion polls, a joint effort of the `Nation’ publishing company and the Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) of political scientist, Peter Wickham, confirm current thinking that the BLP of Prime Minister Owen Arthur is heading for a third consecutive term.

With Nomination Day fixed for Tuesday (May 6), the incumbent party is already confidently talking of "staying with Owen (Arthur) for a third term".

A third term would be a record for the BLP, the country's oldest political party. That privilege was previously enjoyed but once and only by the DLP under the leadership of its late founder-leader, Errol Walton Barrow.

But for all the serious internal leadership and other problems it has had to overcome since losing power to the BLP (Bees) in 1994, the DLP (Dems) is very much on the offensive to prove to the incumbent how wrong it has been in not treating it as the alternative government.

Publicly, the Dems’ rhetoric about being "ready for power" is understandably designed for the campaign trail to counter the overwhelming confidence being exuded by the Bees, whose leader says it will be an election "like none other".

Such a political feat is not the norm in most CARICOM states. But it has occurred in Jamaica and Guyana over successive general elections since the 1990s, with Prime Minister P. J. Patterson's People's National Party doing even better by scoring an unprecedented fourth term last year.

Not known for the kind of excitement normally associated with elections in either Jamaica or Guyana, where national polls are often plagued by political violence, and the tension of cliff-hanging results in Trinidad and Tobago, Barbadians are getting ready to flock to the public meetings to hear arguments why it is time for a change in government. Or, why "we must stay with Owen".

Except for what local political analysts view as "the two aberrations" when, in 1986 and 1999, the BLP and DLP were humiliated into securing merely three and two seats, respectively, Barbados elections do not have the reputation of close finishes. The winner normally secures comfortable working majorities.

This is expected to be the case for this month's poll for which there are 30 constituencies - two more than in 1999. The eligible electorate has been officially placed at 219, 685 - or just over 16,000 more than the previous election.

At the last general election, the BLP, riding largely on the coat-tails of Arthur as a popular leader and Prime Minister - which is also the case for this election - won its 26 seats with 83, 085 votes, or some 64.6 per cent of the voting electorate.

By comparison, the DLP secured its mere two seats with 44, 974 votes, equivalent to 35 per cent of the valid ballots cast. There was a 63 per cent voter response with some 37 percent failing to exercise their franchise.

Now that there are some 16,000 new eligible voters and a perceived mood swing in a number of constituencies, the DLP went on the offensive early with the launching of its campaign last week Saturday with an interim manifesto to show its "state of readiness". It clearly caught more than the governing party by surprise.

And, based on projections of the opinion polls, the Dems are expected to benefit from potential swings from four to six per cent to secure no less than 10 seats, although its strategists are far more optimistic, in raising hopes for a change in government.

As they say, in politics all things are possible. It will be a real shocker if the DLP comes even close to victory.

For the last election, when battling crime was a major plank for the DLP, it ended up with just two seats. There is now much more focus on what's being reported as "bread and butter issues".

Issues, for example, as serious water shortages in various parishes - a nagging social problem that has become progressively worse in a country that has for some years now been enjoying the reputation of being at the apex of the human development index in this hemisphere, as assessed by the United Nations Development Programme.

Crime also remains a social problem that cannot be conveniently swept under the election carpet, while unemployment is estimated at no less than 10 per cent.

Transparency in governance, with a focus on lack of proper accountability by the Arthur administration in major development areas, such as the hotel industry and a controversial landfill project, as well as the declining state of the nation's once premier Queen Elizabeth Hospital, will all be grist for the election mill.

The opposition has been making "economic management" a major issue and will be locking horns with the government on its record of performance as the campaign intensifies.

Key players in the coming economic management debate will be Prime Minister Arthur himself, and the Dems' President and campaign leader, economist Clyde Mascoll, a former employee of the Barbados Central Bank.

Expected to play a significant enabling role alongside Mascoll would be the Dems' former leader, the lawyer David Thompson, who functioned as Opposition Leader in the now dissolved House of Assembly. His lone DLP colleague was Denis Kellman with whom there have been open differences to be exploited by the Bees.

Thompson is a very engaging platform speaker with his waspish tongue. He personally remains as strong as ever in the St. John's constituency that he inherited in 1987 from Errol Barrow, as is Prime Minister Arthur in the parish of St. Peter.

Mascoll, on the other hand, was among the Dems' casualties in 1999. He lost by a mere 29 votes the St. Michael North West constituency to the BLP's Mark Williams, the incumbent for 2003. He was named as a Senator by Thompson in which capacity he was able to keep his own image alive with robust exchanges with the government.

He has been under intense pressures from the BLP as part of the ruling party's offensive which has targetted him for a second defeat with a view to further crippling the DLP's chances of regaining power.

Mascoll is, however, confident of overcoming the cooker-pressure tactics of Arthur and his BLP strategists for personal victory in a campaign that must clearly climax with results sufficient for the Dems to sustain hope for a change in government within the next five years, if not on May 21 - as seems most unlikely.