It could all unravel within the next three to four years and may well influence leadership changes in other parties - in and out of government - within the Caribbean Community.

In Jamaica for sure, where Opposition Leader Edward Seaga may even now be timing his own departure before Patterson is ready for the ruling People's National Party (PNP) to elect his successor- if not earlier.

Let it be said at the outset that neither in Jamaica nor Barbados is there a constitutional requirement for the appointment of a Deputy Prime Minister. I think this may be the case in most if not all other CARICOM states. But such appointments do signal preferences in the line of succession as potential heads of government.

Two of the more high profile heads of government within the Caribbean Community, both Patterson, president and leader of the PNP, and Arthur, leader of the Barbados Labour Party (BLP), have spoken at varying periods of wanting to enjoy a life away from party politics.

Patterson, 68, and Arthur, 54, have much in common in terms of commitment to fostering the ideals of regional economic integration and functional cooperation.

They also have the immense satisfaction of achieving three consecutive electoral victories from the 1990s.

This achievement from the 1990s to this first decade of the new century, is shared only by the governing People's Progressive Party (PPP) in Guyana, though under three different Presidents - Cheddi and Janet Jagan and current incumbent Bharrat Jagdeo.

Long before the PNP won an historic fourth consecutive electoral victory in October last year - and third under Patterson's watch - the Jamaican Prime Minister, undoubtedly the most long serving and experienced of CARICOM heads of government since 1992 when he succeeded the late Michael Manley - has been signalling his desire to take his leave from more than four decades of active party politics.

"Sense of Newness?”
With the PNP's 2002 election victory when, as happened in Barbados last week, the opposition also made a significant recovery in preparation for power the next time around, Patterson was even more forthcoming about his exit at the launch of his book of selected speeches: `A Jamaican Voice in Caribbean and World Politics’.

In the case of Arthur, who had earlier conveyed the impression that two terms as head of government may have been enough for him, he was to be promoted for the just concluded May 21 election as being needed by his party "now more than ever".

He said during the campaign that he talked himself into staying on for this third and final term because of his own anxieties to provide "not only a sense of newness" that fits with the BLP's campaign slogan, `Barbados Renewed’, but to play a key part in helping the new administration to imaginatively respond to the national, regional and international challenges of the time.

Significantly, one of the very early "new" things he has done, on the very day he was sworn in - Thursday, May 22 - as head of government for a third term, was to announce the appointment of his Attorney General and party's General Secretary Mia Mottley as his deputy Prime Minister.

During the previous two terms of BLP administration, the lawyer Billie Miller, one of the more familiar CARICOM ministerial faces at regional and international fora, and a tough political fighter - in the league, perhaps, of Jamaica's Portia Simpson-Miller - served as Deputy Prime Minister.

When the BLP officially presented its 30 candidates for last week's election, Arthur dropped his clearest hint of the coming political ascendancy of the 37-year-old Mottley in the structure of state power.

With his party's landslide 23-7 parliamentary majority, he lost no time in announcing Mottley, who had served as Attorney General and Minister of Home Affairs in the last administration, as Attorney General and Deputy Prime Minister.

In so doing, Arthur gave his stamp of approval to his favoured choice as successor when the time comes for him to "enjoy a life outside of politics".

It is left to be seen if such a smooth transition becomes a reality in the rough and tumble world of party politics in even comparatively tranquil Barbados.

Combative personality
Mottley, bright and full of energy, is both combative and productive. Her challenge as the woman to assume the mantle of prime ministerial leadership would include the extent to which she is able to manage the aggression that comes so easily, not so much against the political opposition, but in dealing with her own ministerial and party executive colleagues.

There is, however, a qualitative difference in Arthur having Mottley as his Deputy Prime Minister while preparing to leave politics before the next general election and the situation in Jamaica as Patterson works out his time table to make way for his successor:

Unlike in Jamaica, where both the PNP and JLP have their respective collection of elected vice presidents or deputy leaders serving under an elected leader, this is not the practice in Barbados for either the governing BLP or the main opposition Democratic Labour Party (DLP).

In the absence, therefore, of a de facto or de jure Deputy Prime Minister in his current administration, Patterson has already signalled that it would be entirely a matter for the PNP to elect his successor, without any preferences or interference from him.

He, in effect, it will be following the pattern set by the late Michael Manley whom he succeeded in 1992. Although he was Deputy Prime Minister under Manley, Patterson had to face Portia Simpson-Miller in a tense election bout at the level of the PNP for party leadership before being eligible to be sworn in as Prime Minister. He went on to lead the PNP to electoral victory and has remained Prime Minister.

Obvious choices for succession to Patterson are Peter Phillips, Minister of National Security and Portia Simpson-Miller, two of four vice-presidents.

In the case of Barbados, it is left to be seen first, for how long Mia Mottley will be functioning as Arthur's Deputy Prime Minister.

And, at the same time, having to contest, on an annual basis, posts within the party, such as general secretary, which she holds, or chairman, currently being held by former Deputy Prime Minister, Billie Miller. .

While, therefore, Arthur has lost no time in identifying his likely successor as Prime Minister, Patterson is being guided by a tested and approved system in Jamaica for his party, the PNP, to independently determine who succeeds him as head of government at least one year or more before a new general election, due in 2007.