THE fields are so tightly bunched entering the home-stretch of World Cup cricket's equivalent of cycling's "devil take the hindmost" that only unbeaten Australia are assured of a place in the last six - and a chance at the game's richest and most prestigious prize.
After just over two weeks since the West Indies stunned South Africa in the opening match under the lights here at Newlands, each of the eight teams in the two preliminary groups have completed four of their six matches.
Only Bangladesh, whose premature inclusion as a full, Test- playing member of the International Cricket Council (ICC) has become increasingly embarrassing, and the eager amateurs of Holland and Namibia already know they will be among the eight that must drop out come Tuesday when the group-matches end. Even Canada, through their initial destruction of Bangaldesh, remain in the race - but, with matches to come against South Africa and New Zealand, strictly theoretically.
For all the others, with the exception of Australia, one further defeat could mean the difference between entry into the elite Super Six round and a possible financial bonanza of US$2.12 million. Cricket has never known anything like the prize-money the ICC has allocated for this tournament. US$10,000 for a victory at the preliminary group stage - where even a loss earns US$5,000 - it rises to US$2 million for the eventual champions (SEE accompanying table).
Since all prize-money goes to the West Indies players (the board is awarded a separate participation fee of US$7.5 million by the ICC), it is a colossal incentive to ensure that they beat both Sri Lanka, here on Friday, and Kenya, in Kimberley on Tuesday in their last two group-matches.
They would top the group with 18 points if they do; defeat in either would almost certainly mean their elimination.
They have been the victims of the palpably unsatisfactory arrangement that divides the points in a rained-out match. Theirs against Bangladesh has been the only one affected so far but every team has been anxiously checking the predicted weather pattern over this vast country for the coming week.
Reserve days for the preliminary round had originally been included in the itinerary but were scrapped, reportedly because it would be too demanding on television coverage, logistically and financially. Various, more equitable alternatives are being examined for the 2007 tournament in the Caribbean but this is no consolation for the West Indies at present - or for anyone else who might suffer in the coming days.
Sri Lanka's humbling by Kenya in Nairobi on Monday has increased the pressure on them. It was expected to be a comfortable match that would earn them their fourth win in four and send them through to the Super Six.
Now they find themselves up against the West Indies and then South Africa in Durban on Monday, the results of which will be decisive.
Losing both would put Sri Lanka out at the first stage for the second successive tournament home since they won the Cup with victory over Australia in Lahore in 1996. Even winning one and finishing on 16 points would not necessarily be enough following their setback against Kenya.
The South Africans seemed certain casualties after they were beaten by the West Indies and New Zealand. To the collective relief of an expectant, rabidly sporting nation - and the organisers - the West Indies' rained out match against Bangladesh gave them a lifeline and they could make it into the last six on net run rates if they beat Canada and Sri Lanka.
New Zealand have the easiest passage with remaining fixtures against Bangladesh and Canada that should be enough to ensure their progress with 16 points.
Kenya, gifted full four points by New Zealand's refusal to fulfil their scheduled match in Nairobi, would also end with 16 points by beating Bangladesh, as expected, and losing to the West Indies.
But their low net run rate is a mitigating factor in their hopes of moving past the preliminary round for the first time in their three World Cups.
Australia have already secured their passage from the other pool and would tally full 24 points by beating Namibia today and England on Sunday. With points gained against fellow qualifiers carried forward to the Super Six along with one each from non-qualifiers, it would be such a huge advantage as to all but guarantee a semi-final place.
In spite of their surrender of full points against Zimbabwe by their refusal to play in Harare, England could clinch top position by beating India tonight in Durban, the centre of South Africa's significant Indian population, and then upsetting Australia who they have beaten in 13 one-day internationals.
It is an unlikely combination that would leave England and Australia on 20 points - and England top of the group by virtue of the victory. To lose both matches would almost certainly end England's hopes.
India also have two difficult encounters, one of more than simply cricketing importance. The first is against England, the second against their bitter rivals Pakistan in Johannesburg on Saturday.
Their long-standing political differences that have led to two wars and a constant, sensitive border dispute has also prevented them playing cricket against each other in their own countries.
This match will be their first since 1999 and the tension is heightened by the realisation that the outcome will probably determine which stays in the Cup and which has to go back to face the fury of their passionate, angry public.
One win should be enough to carry India through with 16 points.
Two defeats would make life very difficult back home for Saurav Ganguly and his players - as it would be Waqar Younis and his Pakistanis.
In spite of another indifferent performance that included 40 extras, Pakistan duly defeated Holland in Paarl yesterday.
They are bound to find Zimbabwe tough opponents in Bulawayo in their final match on Monday but, by then, India could have already sealed their fate.
Zimbabwe, benefitting from England's withdrawal from their match, could still seal a Super Six spot by beating Holland and Pakistan but that would require other results to go their way.
One way or another, a pulsating week lies ahead in what has already been a pulsating tournament.