The latest opinion poll conducted in July by the well established North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) polling organization shows the ruling

PPP leading the opposition PNC by 5% mid-way through its term in office. But with the poll having a margin of error of 5%, it means that both parties are at a statistical dead heat.

The combined opposition leads the PPP in popular support by 4% and the survey is suggesting that the PPP will have a difficult time winning an absolute majority in the next parliamentary elections. In fact, a majority of respondents (including PPP supporters) feel the PPP will not win the next general elections due by 2006.

But it is important to note that a poll is a portrait of voter support only at a particular period of time and inevitably changes over time. Thus, political fortunes could shift by election day almost three years away.

NACTA is a New York-based polling group with no affiliation with any political party. It has been conducting regular polls in Guyana since 1991, Trinidad in 1995, and India in 1998. NACTA has developed a reputation for being on target in all of its pre- election surveys, including most recently in Trinidad’s local government elections last month.

The latest Guyana survey was conducted in mid-July to find out national opinion on a number of issues impacting on the nation as well as to determine current voter support for the various political parties.

NACTA interviewed 612 (294 Indians, 208 Africans, 67 Mixed, 37 Amerindians and 6 others) respondents to yield a demographically representative sample of the voting population.

Voters were polled randomly to make it as representative as possible of varied age, class, occupational and religious categories as well as of ethnicity and educational levels in the population. The poll was co-ordinated by political scientist Vishnu Bisram.

Overall, a near majority of supporters are not happy with the PPP government but a plurality said they will still vote for the PPP viewing it as the lesser of two “evils”. According to the findings of the survey, the PPP leads the PNC 35% to 30% with the other parties combined 9%. Among the latter, GAP is polling 2%, JFA 2%, ROAR 2%, WPA, 1%, TUF 1% (all figures have been rounded off). A few other parties are also polling a fraction of a percent each.

A whopping 26% of the electorate is undecided or will not vote. The poll has a margin of error of 5% meaning that support for each party could vary up to 5% in either direction.

Thus, although the PPP leads the PNC by 5%, with the margin of error the election could be very competitive.

It is important to note that the PNC has narrowed the gap with the PPP which led the PNC in NACTA’s informal polling last year July by 7%. Also, the combined opposition outnumber the PPP 39% to 35%.

Voter apathy is having a serious impact on the electorate. Voters have expressed limited confidence in either major party being able to solve the nation’s problems. Voters complain of a lack of confidence in certain PPP Ministers who are perceived as corrupt and or incompetent and as such have tuned out of politics and from voting. Also, the PPP/C government’s handling of the crime situation has led to a sharp fallout in popular support.

The traditional support base of the PPP is eroding because of what supporters say is the inability of the government to protect them from what they consider as racially motivated crimes and the general neglect of areas where they live.

Indians are also upset with the PNC for not doing enough to protect them from criminal elements who are perceived to have links with some officials of the PNC.

At the same time, middle class Africans also express disenchantment with the political direction of the PNC, some of its policies, and the dalliance between criminal elements and some officials of the PNC. The African middle and professional classes feel the PNC should go all out (go for broke) on reforms and make a complete break with the criminal elements. Like the other ethnic groups, the African professional classes decried the PNC’s perceived dalliance with criminal elements.

Voters are disenchanted with both parties and some have indicated a willingness to consider voting for the mini-parties which explains why some of the mini-parties have seen an increase in popular support.

This has led many respondents to express a yearning for a united third political force as an alternative to the continued failure of the two dominant parties to address the problems confronting the nation.

This suggests that a new multi-racial party could poll significant support to hold the balance of power in parliament and could even be part of a government.

A majority of the respondents say the nation needs a party that will rally the various ethnic groups under one umbrella and that will function professionally under strong moral and ethical principles to address the serious problems of the nation.

With regards to how the parties receive their support, the survey shows that the electorate is racially polarized with Indians rallying around the PPP and Africans the PNC.

Only a very small number of Africans (8%) and Mixed races (15%) have indicated they will vote for the PPP while the PNC is winning a near majority of voters of Mixed races.

The Amerindian vote remains split amongst the various parties. Almost five percent of the Indian voters said they will vote PNC with some Indians claiming they never voted PNC before. GAP and TUF get almost all of their support from Amerindians. WPA and JFA get their support from amongst all the races. ROAR’s support is confined to Indians.

When asked which party they think will win the elections, 57% of the respondents said no party will win an absolute majority while 21% (down from 53% in NACTA’s 2001 poll) said the PPP will win a majority of seats and 7% said the PNC will win with the remaining 15% offering no response.

No PPP supporter gives the PNC a chance at winning the elections.

It may well be that voters will stick with the PPP for another term because many respondents who had indicated they would not vote said “there is no alternative” to the PPP. Indeed, the PPP has the upper hand in any election because of the effects of incumbency and its control over state resources which the party has been using tactfully to win over support in opposition areas.

There is good news for the PNC, however. Indian voters have indicated that they will be willing to give PNC leader Robert Corbin a hearing if the crime situation is under control and the party is purged of elements who are linked to criminals who have terrorized the nation.

But as of now, the PPP (under Jagdeo) is projected to win the presidency especially with the politics of ethnicity in its favor but the election is nearly three years away and anything could happen by then.

Also, it is important to note that support for the mini-parties is soft and can be weaned back easily especially if the economy and peoples’ physical safety improve.

The 26% undecided voters would hold the key as to which party or combination of parties will form the next government.