The NACTA poll conducted in July by Vishnu Bisram is projecting a loss of seats for the PPP in local government elections widely expected next year. The beneficiaries are likely to be the mini- parties and not the official opposition PNC because respondents have expressed a general lack of faith in both major parties to address their concerns.

The poll shows the incumbent PPP enjoying a five points lead over the opposition PNC (35% to 30%) in voter support in a national election with a 5% margin of error which equates to a statistical tie. But there is a lack of enthusiasm among voters for local government elections and voter apathy and cynicism are widespread. Both major parties have lost support since the March 2001 general elections and a large chunk of voters have indicated they are undecided and or will not vote in any upcoming election.

The poll shows crime as the top concern among voters followed by racialism and corruption, all of which impact negatively on voters. Both parties are blamed for the rise in crime and for racial tensions and this has fueled voter apathy.

There is a general lack of enthusiasm among voters for not only the two dominant political parties but for politics in general. The apathy is attributed to widespread discontent with both the ruling PPP and the opposition PNC, both of whom respondents blame for the many problems facing the nation. The inability of the two parties to work together to conduct the peoples’ business and the ongoing bickering among them over a host of issues have caused voters to tune out from politics. In particular, the trading of allegations between the two parties over corruption and mismanagement and quarrels over who is responsible for runaway crime have turned off a lot of voters. Respondents noted that the parties are fighting each other for political power while crime is rampant and the quality of living is steadily declining. They feel that both parties lack a genuine concern to address the problems of the nation.

For the local government elections, voter turnout is projected to be very low. This could spell trouble for the PPP especially if many hard core PPP supporters stay away from the voting booths as they have indicated in the survey. The PPP has suffered some defections among disgruntled party activists who claim that have been neglected and are not recipients of the “spoils of office”. Several have indicated they will sit out the elections and this will negatively impact on PPP support. Also, some PPP supporters have indicated that they will vote for ROAR (which is attracting middle-class Indians) and JFA (which is attracting the poorer classes among Indians and Africans). Thus, the PPP will suffer steep losses unless it changes course and begins to address the concerns of its activists and supporters many of whom say they feel like they are the “step-children” of the PPP.

Voters express little faith in local government. They are of the view that the local bodies have virtually no power. Many respondents charge that some of the chairmen of the local bodies as well as a few regional chairmen are corrupt demanding kick backs and bribes when awarding contracts. Respondents express an almost complete lack of confidence in the local governments making any significant difference in the quality of life in their neighborhoods. They note that the central government has usurped most of the power of the local governments. Voters (including PPP supporters) are urging local government reform that will shift power away from the central government and empower the local bodies, including providing them greater resources, to make them more focused on local issues that are of concern to voters.

The findings of the survey suggest that the PPP will win the most seats in a local government election but the outcome may very well see the PPP sharing power in several of its strongholds with other parties. A near majority of PPP supporters say they are disappointed in the performance of their party in the local governments. They suggest that officials who are tainted with

corruption be urgently purged if the party is going to improve its chances at re-election. Like the PPP, the PNC’s support is also down and it may also have to cull together majorities with the mini-parties in several local governments.

It is important to note that an opinion poll is a portrait of voters’ political preference and attitudes during a specific time period and inevitably changes over time because conditions change causing people to alter their views on issues as well as how they will vote. Thus, it is likely that support for the parties will shift by election day. It should also be noted that support for the mini-parties is soft and can be weaned back by the dominant parties. Support for the major parties is strong because these voters are voting ‘party’ line. And among those who have made up their mind on which party they will vote for, they have strong identification with that party suggesting they will not change their mind by election day.