President Bharrat Jagdeo remains more popular than Opposition Leader Robert Corbin, according to a survey conducted by NACTA in mid July. Jagdeo is expected to win re-election albeit with a reduced parliamentary strength. But Jagdeo’s job could be threatened if the crime situation does not improve and if he does not crack down on perceived corruption as well as address the controversial issue of perceived incompetence among some of his Ministers.

NACTA is a New York-based research and polling group with no affiliation with any political party. The group has been conducting polls in Trinidad since the November 1995 elections and in Guyana since 1990; in addition, NACTA conducted polls in India and New York. NACTA has developed a reputation for being on target in all of its pre-election surveys.

The latest poll was conducted to find out opinion on several wide ranging issues as well as to determine popular support for the main Presidential contenders mid-way through the PPP’s term in office. NACTA interviewed voters to yield a demographically representative sample of the population. Voters were polled randomly to make the sample as representative as possible of varied age, class, occupational and religious categories as well as of ethnicity and educational levels in the population. The survey was coordinated by Vishnu Bisram, a pollster and newspaper columnist in New York.

According to the findings of the survey, Jagdeo’s approval rating as President has slipped since July 2000 when it was at an all time high of 52% to an all time low today of only 34%. But President Jagdeo remains slightly more popular than Opposition Leader Robert Corbin (34% to 31%) as well as his Prime Minister and the government. Asked if they are satisfied with Jagdeo’s performance as President, 34% said yes as compared with 30% who are dissatisfied and 16% who give him a neutral rating, and 20% no response. Only 31% of the respondents are satisfied with the performance of Corbin as Opposition Leader as compared with 40% who are dissatisfied, 15% who give him a neutral rating, and 14% no response. Prime Minister Sam Hinds also has a low approval rating; 30% approve of his performance as Prime Minister with 38% disapproving, 19% neutral and 13% no response.

Almost half of the nation also disapprove of the performance of the government. Asked if they approve of the way the government is running the country, 47% said no with only 22% saying yes, 15% neutral, and 16% no response. The government’s disapproval rating has shot up from 36% since NACTA’s 2000 poll.

Jagdeo’s disapproval rating is 17% lower than his government and his approval rating is 12% higher.

The low popularity of the President, Prime Minister and the government is a result of what voters reveal is their dissatisfaction over the handling of rising crime, the anemic economy, collapsing physical infrastructure, declining health, and widespread corruption and other quality of life issues.

Voters also express displeasure with the PNC and its leader. They are upset with the PNC boycotting parliament and what is perceived as its obstructionist position that is seen hurting everyone, including PNC supporters. Asked if they support the PNC’s tactic of boycotting parliament on and off, 57% of the respondents (including many PNC supporters) said no with only 26% (PNC supporters) saying yes and the others no response. Voters express a desire for Corbin to fully reform the PNC and make a complete break with criminal elements that bring disrepute to the party.

Asked who they would prefer as President, both Jagdeo and Hinds outpoll Corbin. Voters prefer Jagdeo over Corbin 42% to 37% and Hinds over Corbin 40% to 37% with the remainder spread out among the other parties and not voting or undecided. But nearly half of the population said they would prefer someone else as President with Moses Nagamootoo being the top choice; Vincent Alexander, Khemraj Ramjattan, Raphael Trotman, Ravi Dev, Ralph Ramkarran, among others were also mentioned as alternatives to Corbin or Jagdeo as President. Asked to choose between Jagdeo and Nagamootoo as the PPP’s Presidential candidate, PPP supporters prefer Nagamootoo 54% to 31% for Jagdeo and 15% no response. In a match up for President between Nagamootoo and Corbin, Nagamootoo does slightly better than Jagdeo beating Corbin 46% to 35% as compared with Jagdeo’s 42% over Corbin’s 37%. The findings suggest that Jagdeo is losing support among rank and file supporters primarily as a result of his inability to control crime and protect Indians from racially motivated attacks.

Asked if Jagdeo should step down as President, 44% said yes as compared with 32% who said no and 24% who expressed no opinion on the issue. Asked who should replace Jagdeo as President should he decide to resign or not to seek re-election, the majority of PPP supporters (52%) chose Nagamootoo, followed by 20% for Ralph Ramkarran, 11% for Khemraj Ramjattan, 6% for Roger Luncheon, and 1% for Donald Ramotar. A significant number of non-Indians (34%) also prefer Nagamootoo with Ramkarran getting 13%, Ramjattan 7%, Luncheon 5% and the remainder having no opinion on the PPP leadership question.

Asked which of the two major parties they trust more to govern Guyana, 47% said PPP as compared with only 36% who said PNC and 17% no response. Ironically, many Indians said they trust ROAR more than the PPP because they have greater faith in ROAR defending and representing their interests but will vote PPP. Analogously, many Africans said they do not have full trust in the PNC and would like to see the party “fully reformed” but will vote PNC.

A huge majority of respondents (70%) also support constitutional reform with only 14% opposed to reforming the constitution and 16% having no opinion on the issue. Interestingly, 49% (amongst all the races) support some form of shared governance at the national level with only 27% opposed and the remainder having no opinion on the issue. Voters are also very supportive (62% as against 17% who oppose) of the idea to give greater autonomy to the regions and the local governments including providing them with funds to address local concerns and forming their own protective forces.

In reading the findings of this poll, it is important to note that a political opinion survey is a portrait of voters’ political preference and attitudes during a particular point in time. Guyana’s political environment is somewhat fluid and political opinion may well have changed since the poll was taken in July. Also elections are not constitutionally due until another three years and opinion (and political fortunes) could shift between now and then. It should be noted that the economy is on a rebound and the government seems to have gotten a handle on crime. Thus, the approval rating of the President, P.M, and government could have improved over the last month.