Venezuelan petition
Stabroek News
November 30, 2003
If we think that this country has been walking a political tightrope for the last six years, it bears no comparison to what our western neighbour has been doing over the last two. Venezuelan society has become totally polarized, and the invective bandied around by President Chavez and his opponents makes the language exchanged between the PPP/C and PNCR sound almost courtly. After the Venezuelan opposition had tried first a coup and then an oil strike with no success to bring down the head of state, an impasse appeared to have been reached. But on Friday, that impasse was broken when large numbers of jubilant Venezuelans queued to append their signatures to a petition for a recall referendum on Mr Chavez's presidency.
While the constitution provides for a recall vote half-way through the President's term - which was reached in August - it was by no means certain a few months ago that the referendum would ever have materialized at all. As it is, the opposition have until tomorrow to collect 2.4 million signatures, representing 20 per cent of the 12 million voters on the register. Polls suggest that it is likely that that target will be reached, but whether in fact that turns out to be so is something which will not be known for several weeks.
While President Chavez himself recently indicated he would accept a result which was not in his favour, at an earlier stage he had vowed to challenge every signature. If the process goes smoothly, and the opposition secure their 2.4 million signatures, a referendum should be held around April of next year. However, not without reason the opposition believe that the Government would try by various means to delay the vote.
One good reason is the Venezuelan constitution which requires national elections to be held within 30 days of the revocation of the President's mandate - provided that the recall vote has taken place before August 2004. Whoever won the election under those circumstances, would then remain in office until 2007. If, on the other hand, revocation comes later than August 2004, then the current Vice President would take office until the end of Mr Chavez's term in 2006, following which national elections would be held. That arrangement at least would leave Mr Chavez's party in control of the government machinery for the next two years.
The President had earlier mounted his own signature campaign for a petition to recall 38 oppostion deputies in the legislature - some of whom had once been his supporters but who have since deserted him. That exercise ended last Monday, and while Vice President Rangel has claimed that millions of Chavistas (those who support the President) turned out to sign, many observers think that his figures have been grossly exaggerated.
If the Government does indeed obtain their 2.4 million names and their own recall referendum, they perhaps would have an opening to gain greater control over the Assembly, which in turn could give them leverage in the later phases of the political game. If the President's mandate were revoked, but his party - the MVR - had a large enough majority in the Assembly, they might be in a position to adjust the electoral rules should that become necessary. For example, according to the BBC, it is not altogether clear legally speaking, whether if he lost a referendum Mr Chavez could stand as a presidential candidate in a subsequent national election.
Be that as it may, winning a recall referendum even if they get it, is not a foregone conclusion for the opposition; they have to secure at least as many votes as Mr Chavez received in the 2000 election - 3.76 million - in addition to which voter turn-out must be a minimum of 25 per cent. It must be said too that even if they cleared that hurdle, they would still have to put their political house in order before they could contest an election with any reasonable hope of success. As things stand they have no policies, no strategy for lifting Venezuela's masses out of poverty, and no single candidate for President. The only thing that unites them at this point is their hatred for Mr Chavez.
At the moment some polls put the President's support at 40 per cent, following substantial Government expenditure recently in the shanty towns in a bid to secure votes. But even supposing that that slips back to the 30 per cent of a few months ago, it would still be sufficient in the absence of a single visionary opposition candidate, to allow Mr Chavez after losing a recall referendum, to triumph in a national election. If he did win the latter, then those committed to removing him would have no other democratic avenue open to them, except to wait until another election rolled around. Given the bitterness between the two sides, it is not a formula for stability.
An equally unpromising scenario for long-term stability would be if the opposition won a recall referendum and then a national election. It is difficult to see Mr Chavez's hard-core supporters meekly accepting his retreat into private life, even if it were the case that he was prepared to abjure unconstitutional activity. They perceive the opposition as representing the discredited, corrupt oligarchs, whom the electorate threw out of office in 1998 and kept out of office in 2000, and President Chavez as representing the only hope for the poor.
Before we ever get to the long term, however, there is the matter of the short term. The waiting period for the result of the petition could always produce problems, of course, although the period following the announcement of the result - however it goes - and before and after a recall referendum - if there is one - would seem to be the more likely immediate danger zones. If the track record of both sides is anything to go by, the odds that the politicians will display restraint, and maintain their supporters under discipline may not be all that good, although no doubt the OAS and the 'friends' of Venezuela will attempt to bring their benign influence to bear on the protagonists.
Following the start of the collection of signatures on Friday, the BBC reported Mr Albis Munoz, the head of Venezuela's business organization and an opposition leader as talking of healing the wounds of Venezuelan society. That, unfortunately, remains to be seen.