Guyana's economy has been stagnating for the last six years and under the current IMF programme, growth is projected at a low annual average of 1.5% between 2003 and 2007. This is based on low levels of private investment and structural reforms in recent years.

But even these low targets are not being met. Growth in 2003 was under 1%.

Inflation has remained low in the 1998-2003 period and the fiscal and external deficits have widened.

A number of reasons have been proffered for the low out-turn including adverse movements in the terms of trade; the large public sector wage increases; declining tax revenues; political instability; increasing rates of crime and the slowing pace of structural reforms.

These are well-dressed reasons but do not capture adequately the local scenario where putting out fires has been the order of the day and ad hoc remedies are applied to sporadic outbursts from society. The need to find new areas of growth has been stated ad nauseam as well as the need to diversify the economic base and make competitive the traditional sectors.

The government is pushing ahead with plans to make competitive the sugar and bauxite sectors but apart from these structural reforms in the public service and in the traditional growth areas, one gets the impression that little else is being done to cultivate new areas of potential growth. If anything is being done, it certainly has not yielded any tangible results in the past few years as the traditional sectors continue to be the sources of whatever growth Guyana has seen.

No doubt getting projects off the ground takes a while but the Guyana Office for Investment (Go-Invest) needs to be more visible, to present tangible evidence of projects and to make available these investors to the media so that there can be credibility behind investment figures being churned out. Go-Invest needs to promote itself in the public's eye as a marketing agency scouting out investments for Guyana. In an economy where nothing seems to be happening, this agency needs to be heard on anything that could be happening. It would lend some hope to the despairing.

But having said that, one cannot help but feel that something is very wrong with the management of the economy. No one gets the impression that the Ministry of Finance is really in charge of the fiscal and financial affairs of the country and even if it were, does it have the ability to craft policies within the tight guidelines set by international institutions to take Guyana out of the doldrums? While IMF-World Bank programmes provide the broad guidelines to maintain macroeconomic stability, one does not get the impression that all is being done to innovate within this framework to allow for higher returns and there is also the concern about value for money in government spending.

One does not get the impression that the Minister of Finance can grapple with the situation nor that the Ministry of Finance has the institutional capability to take Guyana out of a low growth scenario. Guyana seems to be meandering aimlessly along. Unless something is done to stimulate the economy, we seem set to continue on this path. 2006 is an election year and unless our political culture is changed, 2005 and 2007 would be economic low periods in anticipation of tensions.

The year 2008 will mark 16 years of a PPP/C government in office (this assumes ethnic voting continuing). Where would we be as a nation post- independence? How would we fare next to our brothers and sisters in the region? What would our standard of living be like and what would the power purchasing parity of our incomes be?

The government has been using the PNC's 28 years as a yardstick to measure its achievements. However, it is running out of time and by 2006, it would have been in power for half that time. Will our companies be ready to face competition in a globalised economy? Will our poverty level drop further? Will our incomes allow us to live satisfactory lives? Will our education system deliver to us children of whom we are proud?

It is time we stop and consider. Where are we going?