Caricom diplomacy has suffered a telling rebuff. And there was worse to come. Caricom failed to secure the UN Security Council's approval for the sending in immediately of a peace keeping force into Haiti.

The Security Council decision had a certain inevitability. The USA and France who had effectively wrested the initiative from Caricom were now of the same mind, that is that a force should only go in after there is a political settlement. First the French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin and then Colin Powell, US Secretary of State stated, however obliquely, that Aristide must as a first step towards a settlement leave office. And then the Bush White House reinforced this position.

Given the intransigence of the opposition who even under intense pressure refused to consider any settlement until Aristide left, the two governments must have known that the formula, namely settlement first then the intervention force, was a non-starter. It may not be cynical to think that the inevitable chaos was in fact envisaged as leading to the ouster of Aristide.

The removal of an elected head of government by unconstitutional means in a Caricom member state, as Prime Minister P J Patterson has reasserted, cannot be accepted by Caricom.

It appears that Colin Powell for his part is now leaving the moves to de Villepin. Powell is doubtless aware that condoning the removal of an elected Head of Government through an uprising could open up a Pandora's box in simmering Latin America and in Caricom despite its long tradition of parliamentary government.

In the face of the Security Council rebuff, Caricom must now urgently rethink its diplomacy. The interest of France, Canada and the US should have sent a strong signal to Caricom that it was time to restore the diplomatic balance by enlisting the support of powerful regional states, especially Brazil which more than any other Latin American State has an awareness of the African heritage.

Whatever the outcome, it is certain that the international media will assign, as they are already doing, major blame to Aristide. However the persistent and current resort to violence and disorder as the dominant instrument of change owes much to Western power politics. It should never be forgotten that the US in particular and other Western countries condoned if not supported the terror regimes of Papa Doc Duvalier and his son Baby Doc, as a bulwark against the spread of the alleged contagion of communism from, nearby Cuba. Much of the dreadful reality of today's Haiti is the heritage of the Duvalierist era.

Haiti is characterised by massive underdevelopment and the instability of the essential institutions of government namely parliament, executive government and the judiciary. Where Caricom states labour under the disadvantage, in terms of attracting economic assistance, of having comparatively high per capita incomes, Haiti is the poorest country in the hemisphere, with a situation of mass poverty. Formal unemployment is estimated at 50 to 70%. It is the only state in Latin America and the Caribbean classified as a Least Developed Country.

Add to such structural poverty two other scourges. First, Aids with the highest rate of infection in the hemisphere - with Guyana running second! Next is drug trafficking. Haiti is situated north of the Colombian coast and its coastline which provides numerous coves has made it into a major location for drug transshipment and the smuggling of arms.

In the English speaking Caricom, even the a smallest state has been endowed with an established, continuously functioning legal system, and a legislative and an executive. Not so with Haiti. For long periods organised group violence, as already noted, has been the main instrument of change. Hon. Fred Mitchell, Foreign Minister of Bahamas, who has emerged as the foremost spokesman for Caricom had pointed out that if Aristide goes he will be the 33nd Head of Government in Haiti to have been ousted. The judicial system has been described as dysfunctional as is the police force which is poorly trained, ill equipped and frequently corrupt.

Counting from 1987, Haiti has had eleven governments and sometimes none at all. Parliament has from time to time existed only in name. A major source of instability is the political party system or rather lack of system. At any one time there are between 50 to 60 parties. Parties form, re-form, divide, coalesce, often changing altogether their political positions. Even Aristide's Lavalas party, one of the most cohesive to emerge, has been subject to division and fundamental change. No political leader, not even Aristide who has won three elections can at any time be assured of parliamentary support even when his party wins a majority of seats. Parliamentarians do not support measures or oppose them according to a party line. Each issue attracts its own unique pattern of support or opposition; on each occasion the leader must build a new and momentary consensus.

Central to the current situation of chaos is the prolonged intransigence of opposition groups. Over the past three years these groups have refused to name representatives to the Electoral Council or to participate in elections.

The decision of Western governments acting on opposition allegations to withhold millions of US dollars of economic assistance has exacerbated the problems outlined above, deepened poverty and created the conditions in which lawlessness and gangs could thrive.

The international media are now portraying Aristide as a dictator dependent on gangs.

The transformation of the parish priest beloved by the poorest people of Haiti, must surely be ascribed in large measure to the efforts to cope with a country characterised by structural violence and instability in nearly every sector of society. In the long view of history his worst crime may be seen that having been put back into power, he refused to commit his country to a market economy.

What is the likely outcome? Events since the writing of the above have moved rapidly. Aristide has been forced into resignation and has fled into exile. President Bush's immediate decision to send in the marines confirms the conclusion that the impossible formula of political settlement first, then the international force later had as its intention the forcing out of Aristide by the envisaged ensuing disorder.

With the French anxious to mend fences with the US through a joint military operation the way was clear for the UN Security Council to reverse its position and authorise a multinational force for three months, thus endorsing a fait accompli as there were already US marines in Port au Prince. Caricom has been outwitted through a carefully worked out plan between the US and France.

Caricom now faces a momentous foreign policy decision, namely whether to accept the mask of constitutionality provided by the swearing in of the Chief Justice as President and the giving of legitimacy to these events by participating in the multinational force. Given the Haitian reality as described above, the disorder may be just beginning.