Venezuelan crisis
Editorial
Stabroek News
May 23, 2004
Our neighbour to the west is in the throes of another crisis cycle which makes our political problems seem puny in comparison. Two weeks ago, the Venezuelan authorities arrested a large number of Colombians at a farm outside Caracas whom the government claimed had ties to Colombia's right-wing paramilitaries. President Chavez has alleged that they were financed by Washington, and that they were planning a coup in conjunction with former Venezuelan military officers and elements in the opposition. After various private homes had been searched, including that of the ex-wife and daughter of former President Carlos Andres Perez, a number of people were detained, and by the end of last week a total of 132 had been rounded up and placed in custody.
Washington called Mr Chavez's allegations in relation to US involvement in the supposed plot "irresponsible," Colombia offered to investigate any possible ties the Colombians may have had to its banned paramilitaries, and the opposition scoffed at the coup claims, saying that this was a media exercise staged by the government to distract attention from the recall referendum.
The Colombians, it appeared, were very poor and very young - nine of them were minors - and many had been lured to Venezuela from their border community of Cucuta with the promise of work. When discovered, they were wearing neatly-pressed, brand-new Venezuelan army camouflage fatigues, but strangely, considering they were supposed to be involved in a military adventure, no weapons were found either on their persons or in the vicinity, save for a solitary pistol.
Last Sunday, in response to the foiled "coup," President Chavez announced that he would establish people's militias, and upgrade Venezuela's military as part of an "anti-imperialist" phase of his administration. According to the AFP, he declared that US imperialists were planning to invade Venezuela in order to take control of its oil. The news agency quoted him as saying that both active and retired military officers, as well as reserve troops would start to organize civilians "so they can defend the fatherland."
An opposition member of the Assembly, Jose Farias, told AFP, "The plan is aimed at organizing and legalizing pro-government militias at the service of the state." He was referring to existing organizations like the Bolivarian Circles, as well as rather more shadowy urban groups such as the Tupamaros, all of whom are already illegally armed. Lina Ron, the most famous member of the Bolivarian Circles, whom President Chavez himself once called "uncontrollable," told the Miami Herald earlier this month, "Are we armed? Up to our cheeks... Any time the fascists lift a finger against the poor they will be punished by our popular militias."
The Financial Times on Wednesday reported diplomats in Caracas as holding the view that Mr Chavez was employing the idea of an external enemy with the aim of making sure that the military closed ranks behind him, and of identifying dissidents. The daily quoted an unnamed European diplomat as saying, "We are edging towards a situation that could justify a state of emergency," adding that the possibility could not be entirely dismissed of a border incident with Colombia being manufactured. Even a state of emergency which applied only to certain regions, it was thought, could sabotage the holding of a recall referendum. As for Colombia, the FT quoted a senior official source there as commenting that, "Diplomatic relations with Venezuela hang by a thread."
All of this, it must be remembered, is taking place against the background of a validation exercise on several hundred thousand signatures relating to a petition for a recall referendum to be held on Mr Chavez's presidency. Of the 3.4 million signatures submitted by the opposition last November, 375,241 were rejected outright by Venezuela's electoral council and 1,192,914 were queried. If the opposition are to meet the minimum legal requirement to trigger a referendum, then 525,118 of those signatures which have been questioned, would have to be confirmed by the signatories.
The ratification process will take place at the end of this week from May 28 to 30, although at one stage there was some doubt as to whether this would happen at all. Among the quirks of the arrangement which the opposition has not succeeded in having eliminated, is the fact that those signatures already classified as valid by the electoral council can still be excluded if the signatory either repents from having signed in the first place, or claims that they did not sign at all, and that the signature appearing on the form is a fraudulent one.
It should be noted that in the aftermath of the submission of the original signed forms by the opposition in November last year, the unions lodged complaints that people had been dismissed from state posts, including some doctors and teachers, for signing the petition. The same was true, they said, of certain businesses which had contracts with the government. Apart from other obvious objections, there was also the fear that any level of intimidation, whether or not widespread, could cause people to rescind their signatures during a ratification process.
The decision to permit the withdrawal of a signature already deemed valid by the electoral council, drew adverse comment from both the Carter Center and the OAS, as a consequence of which the council threatened to refuse to accredit them as observers to the ratification process. It appears, however, that they are now indeed to be allowed to observe the exercise this week.
The opposition had also brought an election case in the Supreme Court, but President Chavez has probably checked them there too. Earlier this month he got legislative approval to increase the number of judges on the court from 20 to 32, allowing him to control it through his own appointees. Reuters reported a government member of the National Assembly as indicating that the administration planned a shake-up of the judiciary throughout the court system, similar to the purge which had been carried out last year in the state-owned oil company PdVSA.
Exactly what will happen following the validation exercise is difficult to say; the opposition is not likely to accept any decision of the electoral council declaring that it has not met the minimum quota, while President Chavez for his part is not giving any indication that if the quota is met, he will allow any recall referendum to proceed. The route forward out of the crisis which would allow a positive outcome is not obvious at this point.