2004 has probably not been a very good year for the cocaine sector. Sector is the right word given that just a few of the shipments that were caught had a street price valued at more than Guyana's annual rice or sugar exports.
But an overseas journalist cautions that the big hauls including the recent cocaine in coconuts are pretty loosely valued by law enforcement agencies, partly because it makes them look good.
The UK customs that discovered the cocaine outside a London market put a price of US$54.5M on the 500 kg calling it the largest bust ever in London. But the observer notes that the landed value in UK a few years ago was US$20,000 per kg, which would be US$10M. He notes that the price coming into Guyana ready for transhipment would have been around US$2500 per kg. So the transshipment value added is around US$17,500 per kg - for the whole route from Colombia to a UK port - or US$8.75m for half a tonne.
He suggests that Guyanese were more than likely working as agents for Colombian drug lords or another international group given the quantities so their cut would have only been a proportion of the US$8.75m. Often this is 5% to 10% of the shipment paid in cocaine or 50kg - not cash. Monetising it could be done through local sales which is unlikely given the low demand, or through drug mules to the US. The amount netted by local agents from this sort of shipment would be around US$500,000.
One clue that Guyanese are not in charge of shipping to the UK is that there are not the amounts of used pound notes flowing through the cambios.
The discrepancy between the effective local rate of the pound sterling and the US dollar at around $1.75 as opposed to the international rate of US$1.92 may be a reflection of drug funds flowing back primarily in US dollars.
The observer asks what is the protocol when a shipment is busted? Who actually owned the half-tonne? For any organisation the costs of the drugs at US$2,500/kg - probably paid in Colombia = US$1.25m, plus any trans-shipment costs incurred are still substantial. Someone must pay and Guyanese agents may be politely asked to cough up their commission.
But despite the high profile seizures in the UK of shipments, not just those out of Guyana, prices have actually gone down once it arrives in the country. Dealers are working on razor thin margins as competition heats up, according to an article in The Economist magazine. Multiple kilogramme loads are going for US$28,000 to US$56,000 but prices for a single kilogramme is barely higher at US$33,000 to US$59,000.
What is for sure is that the high-profile busts of cocaine in lumber, molasses and now coconuts is giving Guyana a reputation as a major transhipment point to Europe.