More than any other country I am familiar with, Guyana epitomizes the importance of utilizing a political economy approach towards the unravelling of its underlying economic rhythms and dynamics. Mainstream orthodox economic analysis, while useful in several other situations, is of limited benefit for capturing all the unique subtleties and complexities that are involved. It would be in my view, therefore, an extreme perversion of reality for one to attempt to analyze Guyana's economic structure, functioning and performance in isolation from its political system and the related issues of political power and its distribution.
Politics in command
There is a strong and seamless interconnection between the country's economics and its politics. Politics is clearly in command. This has occurred to the extent that political irrationality, arrogance, stupidity, and ineptness have replaced the 'economic calculus' evident in most other countries as the driver of economic change. Unfortunately, for all of us, this has produced, by and large, an unimaginable array of negative consequences particularly those born out of senseless acts of violence. Politics, perhaps more than any other factor, has operated in a manner designed to perpetuate the cycle of poor growth, impoverishment and wasted opportunities, which have been the lot for the broad masses of the population since Independence.
It is in this regard that I believe the assassination of Ronald Waddell, who has been a major player in this political process, will not only deepen and broaden political conflicts, but will also have considerable adverse economic consequences. This is not surprising; after all this is an election year, with all the gloom and doom that conjures. Furthermore, it follows a year in which the economy has performed badly - with a negative rate of growth of GDP of 3 per cent. Also, as is well known, between the death of President Cheddi Jagan and today the average annual rate of growth of the economy has been less than one-half of one per cent, signifying a very prolonged period of stagnation.
Even the most optimistic among us would realize that the country's economic future at this point in time can only replicate more of what has transpired in the past - stagnation. The adverse effect of the assassination on business outlook will severely compound those created by the present floods and the forthcoming national elections. For the broader international business community and also for those countries offering development assistance and debt relief to Guyana, their levels of anxiety and concern would, for sure, have been dramatically elevated.
To them Waddell's execution symbolizes not only an assault on a political activist but on a media practitioner and fierce and consistent public critic. Democracy, the rule of law, the right to dissent and free speech have all been brutally assaulted by this act.
Timing
From an economic standpoint the timing of this execution (on the day the budget was opened for debate in the National Assembly) was, to say the least, a cruel irony. As remarked in last week's article the budget has forecast for this year a rate of growth of the economy of over 4 per cent! And, if this was uncertain when I wrote then, in light of this senseless action and what is likely to follow, it would be at this stage well nigh impossible to achieve.
If the political economy of Guyana were only half-understood by the political ruling class, it would be difficult to come to terms with their lack of comprehension and understanding of the world around them that is betrayed by the little minds that plotted this murder. It is, I believe, a similar lack of comprehension of the processes at work in the country, which continues to feed the downward spiralling effects when politics is in command.
The absurdity of this situation, however, does not stop there. The country has regressed to a stage where politics is not only in command; it has by now become a business beholden unto itself! Here I am not referring to these professional politicians who make a living serving professional causes. This happens everywhere in the world where some form of electoral democracy is practised, and is quite acceptable. I am referring instead to the politics that accumulates wealth on the basis of transforming the state into a 'criminal enterprise' for the benefit of the ruling political class.
Criminal enterprise
I do not wish to re-engage at this point the long series of articles where I had elaborated on this thesis of the state as a criminal enterprise. There were 30 articles on this subject. However, the seamless interconnection that exists between politics and economics has engendered a transformation of politics in Guyana into 'big business.' It is important to note for starters that this 'big business' is in its entirety illicit and illegal. The state does not, and indeed cannot, legalize the use of its instrumentalities for private gain and benefit.
Yet we hear of this phenomenon occurring every day. Consider such situations as: 'state security operatives' who rent guns; place themselves for private hire to commit illegal acts; or, organize their own self-help marauding operations against the citizenry. Other arms of the state are engaged in similar criminalities, although these may be of a different 'white-collar' type.
One consequence of this development has been the deep penetration of organised crime into the interstices of the state, national decision-making, and the playing out of political opportunities. In an election year (with every prospect of a strong contest) this is a deadly mixture of circumstances.
New dimension
It is in this context therefore that Waddell's assassination adds a whole new dimension to the present political moment. In recent years all of us have had to carry some of the nation's shame over extra-judicial killings, state-sponsored death squads, and rigged elections. And, while it is true that we have had political executions before, this one is significant because of the long period that has elapsed since the most famous of them all (Walter Rodney, 25 years ago). It is also significant because after the 1992 national elections, it seemed that political assassination of this sort had been outlawed and banished forever from our country, with the return to a 'free and fair election.' Further that transfer of governments would from then onwards only occur through the ballot box.
These two features are, to my mind, part of the necessary minimum conditions for securing basic democracy in Guyana.