Coming quartet of elections
-- Big challenges for Portia and Owen
By Rickey Singh
Guyana Chronicle
March 25, 2007
THE Bahamas will be very much caught up in the final phase of its general election as the final games are being played off for Cricket World Cup 2007.
It would be the first of four national elections expected this year, the others being in Jamaica, Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, though not necessarily in that order.
Of the quartet the most difficult outcome to predict is that of Jamaica's poll. Failure to retain power could be the big surprises for both Trinidad and Tobago's incumbent People's National Movement (PNM) and the governing Barbados Labour Party (BLP)
In the case of The Bahamas, the earlier optimism of an expected second-term victory for Prime Minister Perry Christie's incumbent Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) is seemingly giving way to growing speculations of now facing a major challenge to avoid the return to power by the Free National Movement (FNM).
Whatever the outcome, there would be no problems for CARICOM as The Bahamas is not integrally involved in the arrangements for the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME) and remains disinterested in accessing the Caribbean Court of Justice.
In sharp contrast, changes in government in either Jamaica or Trinidad and Tobago could well delay the march towards the realisation of the goal of a seamless regional economy by 2008, as well as further dampen prospects for widening the membership of the CCJ. No such problem for Barbados.
In both Jamaica and Barbados the ruling PNP and BLP face the crucial challenge to blend their showing of public confidence with the harsh reality of having to scale an unprecedented hurdle in post-independence electoral politics.
For Barbados, the major hurdle facing Arthur's three-term ruling BLP is to be the first incumbent to secure a fourth consecutive hold on state power.
In Jamaica the challenge for Portia Simpson Miller's fourth-term governing PNP -- which she inherited last year in a bruising campaign for the party's leadership -- is to achieve an historical fifth term PNP administration.
Neither Prime Minister Arthur nor Prime Minister Simpson-Miller is anxious to telegraph any signal to their opponents about an election timeframe. The biggest political surprise of 2007 would be, in my reckoning, if either or both fail to lead their respective party to the polls -- long before Christmas.
Unless totally unexpected developments occur, no one should seriously bother about orchestrated official tactics in Barbados to foment doubts about a general election this year.
In Jamaica, for all the socio-economic challenges facing the PNP, there is the danger of the JLP fatally shooting itself in the foot by its continuous milking for election campaigning of the so-called "Trafigura bribery scandal" and the criminal rampage that afflicts the nation.
"Hush Money"
Some of today's frightening gun-running, drug-trafficking related killings and criminal violence are viewed as having roots in an old political culture spawned by the traditional rivals for state power -- PNP and JLP.
So far as the J$31 million given to the PNP by Trafigura is concerned as, allegedly, election campaign financing, the opposition JLP leader, Bruce Golding, cannot be that bold to suggest that his own party has clean hands when it comes to receiving "contributions", or whatever respectable name is given to "hush money".
Does he recall, for instance, the situation in the decade of the 80s under Eddie Seaga's fierce anti-communist campaigns against the Michael Manley-led PNP?
Then, his party was reputedly bankrolled not only by the local captains of industry but also with money from controversial foreign sources, including funds from the U.S. that flowed to a then rightwing Caribbean Democratic Union (CDU) of which the JLP was identified as a key player.
The JLP may yet be in for its own dose of embarrassment before arrangements are finally in place for regulating campaign financing within the context of beating back public corruption and ensuring maximum transparency in electoral politics.
Meanwhile, in Barbados, the stage seems well set for Prime Minister Arthur's strategies leading up to dissolution of parliament for new national elections.
After the CWC final game at Kensington Oval next month, there comes July's regular annual CARICOM Summit at which the Prime Minister, in addition to being host and new chairman, will be playing a key role in his capacity as Head of Government for CSME-readiness in 2008.
The summit will take place as Barbados begins month-long Crop-Over celebrations with Bajans in customary "sweet-fuh-days" revelry mood.
After that the focus on election dates could only deepen -- and not just in Barbados, but also in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.